Ranking Potential Future DFL Leaders

My ranking on who would be the best and worst choices for a future statewide career in the North Star State

If there is anything you should know about me by now, it is that I am a fan of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota or DFL for short. Ever since it first became a party in 1944, it has been extraordinarily skilled at doing everything a party should, whether it be in basic governing, running campaigns, or pushing the party towards embracing progressive causes. The people that have come out of the party have become symbols of why we should fight for a better world, such as Hubert Humphrey’s 1948 speech on civil rights at the DNC, Walter Mondale’s work on Fair Housing legislation, or Paul Wellstone’s push for a Democratic Party that didn’t embrace the framing of Republican talking points. For a statewide party, there isn’t a lot more one could ask for.

All of this success has culminated in the recent 2023 Minnesota legislative session, which saw Minnesota pass some of the most transformative policy goals in the country, such as expansions of labor rights, the establishment of a paid sick leave program, and LGBTQ+ and abortion protections. While there is still more that the party can and will do, this extraordinary session is the result of years of organizing, hard work, and passion by DFL leaders. It’s a sign of hope in an otherwise dark time, a sign that our votes and organizing can make a meaningful difference in people’s lives.

Make no mistake, however, none of this is guaranteed to stick around. The Republicans have already made a considerable effort at stopping all of it, and if there is anything you should know about progress, it’s that someone can always come along and reverse all of it. I don’t expect that to happen as of now, the Minnesota GOP has been one of the worst state parties in the country ever since it nearly struck gold back in 2016. But there is no telling what the future holds, and if the Minnesota GOP decides to get its act together, the DFL is going to need to put in a strong effort to defend the progress it has made, and to do that, it will need strong candidates who can meet the moment.

But just who can meet the moment? What makes these candidates appealing? What are the flaws of these candidates? What do I think of each of these candidates? Well, to answer those questions, let’s start at the bottom of the list and work our way up.

F Tier

Jacob Frey (Mayor of Minneapolis)

For every other politician on this list, even if they are ranked quite low, you’ll find that I can still find a positive thing to say about them, whether it be on policy or their electoral record. While some candidates are certainly more flawed than others, I can find good reasons for why someone would support them, even if I have them ranked lower than you may agree with.

However, this is not the case with the only figure I have ranked in F Tier. Ever since he first became the Mayor of Minneapolis back in 2018, Jacob Frey has been a consistently negative force in city politics, more focused on his grievances than doing anything meaningful for the people of Minneapolis. He has no idea how to work with his city council, frequently getting into pointless skirmishes that could have been easily avoided. He is almost entirely beholden to the police union, even despite the Minneapolis Police Department being well known for its use of excessive and cruel force. He is constantly picking fights with Ilhan Omar, even endorsing her de-facto Republican opponent in the 2022 primary.

Normally, someone of his stature would, at the very least, have a decent enough electoral profile to compensate, but Frey might just be the worst out of everyone on this list in that regard. In fact, it’s extremely difficult to imagine a group of people who don’t harbor feelings of distrust. Despite constantly pandering to their interests, Frey is despised by virtually every corner of the right, giving him nearly sole blame for some of the riots that broke out in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder. He’s also largely hated by the left, who view him as a total sellout to the dysfunctional and immoral police unions. While he’s likely to find the most friends in the moderate wing of the DFL, many of them remain skeptical thanks to his tenure presiding over those previously-mentioned riots.

All of this has resulted in him only being re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2021, a sharp contrast from past mayors like R. T. Rybak who won with near unanimous party support. Simply put, he is the absolute worst the DFL could ever possibly put up from an electoral and policy perspective. Even if he were to somehow overcome his terrible image and win a statewide office, he wouldn’t even do a good job at it. There is not a single upside to a Frey candidacy, and any effort made by him to expand his reach, whether it be a statewide office or primarying Ilhan Omar, should be opposed at all costs.

D Tier

Ilhan Omar (U.S. Representative for Minnesota’s 5th District)

Next up, we have a choice that I’m sure is going to infuriate my more progressive readers and friends, so before I get into anything, I want to make something clear: I like Ilhan Omar. I think much of the hate that she gets is entirely unwarranted and unfair, and her progressive voice in Congress is an important one to have. While I have some problems with her stances on some issues, I have no interest in primarying her and think efforts to do so are entirely wasteful. She’s been a solid vote for not just Democratic policy, but progressive policy beyond that too. As a U.S. Representative, she’s a good servant for the people of Minneapolis.

That being said, I will also not pretend that she should or could go anywhere beyond that. While her stances are very solid, one thing is undeniable when analyzing her campaigns and electoral record: She is a terrible politician.

The easiest place to see this is her electoral record. While her first performance in 2018 was fine enough, her next two showings would fully reveal her as one of the weakest politicians in the entire country. In 2020, despite Joe Biden winning her district by 63 points, Ilhan Omar would only win by 39, making it an underperformance of 24 points. No, I didn’t mistype anything. She underperformed Joe Biden by 24 points! This terrible standing did not improve throughout Biden’s first two years. Not only did she drastically underperform every other Democrat on the ballot once again, but she even managed to nearly lose her primary to Don Samuels, a Republican plant who joked about watching a kid drown.

Certainly, some of this underperformance can be attributed to her status as a Muslim, Somali woman who is frequently used by both the national and state GOP as a punching bag to attack Democratic policies. Most of these attacks are unfair and vicious, and it would have likely been this way regardless of how good of a politician she may have been. It’s something that has hurt her other Squad co-partisans like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Jamaal Bowman. Ilhan Omar is no different from them in this respect, so not all of these terrible results can necessarily be attributed to anything she did.

But it’s also true that even among members of the Squad, she is by far the worst-performing one out of all of them. While some of her weakness could be attributed to racism and islamophobia, it would also be dishonest to say that this is the only cause of it. While she would pull off a very impressive primary win in 2018, none of that infrastructure and campaign structure would carry over as an incumbent. In both her 2020 and 2022 campaigns, she did nothing regarding advertising and getting out the vote despite signs being present throughout the entire contest that there was opposition to her that had real support. This stands out in contrast with other Squad leaders like Rashida Tlaib, who has consistently fended off primary challengers with relative ease.

To be clear, I don’t want this to be the case. Her policy record is very solid, and she’s been an important voice for progressive causes in the U.S. House. But an electoral record this poor and a campaign strategy this terrible simply cannot be ignored or swept aside. She’s a good representative for Minneapolis, and any attempt by the city’s centrist wing to primary her should be opposed. But unless she gets her act together in the electoral department, it should never go beyond that. She’s above Frey on account of her policy beliefs, but make no mistake: she’d be a bad candidate statewide.

Julie Blaha (State Auditor of Minnesota)

If I were to use any fact to prove to you how effective the DFL is, it’s that ever since the 2010 midterms, they have yet to lose a single statewide race. Whether it be a blue or red-leaning year, the party has won every office, every time. It’s a remarkable achievement, one that represents the strength of the candidates and the organizing abilities of the DFL. It’s something that no one should take for granted.

However, while they’ve been able to keep up their winning streak for a remarkable amount of time now, there have been close calls that almost put it to a stop. There have been several examples of this, like Mark Dayton’s incredibly small gubernatorial victory in 2010, Steve Simon's narrow victory for the Secretary of State office in 2014, and Keith Ellison’s back-to-back underperformances for State Attorney General in 2018 and 2022. But none of these would end up being the closest result, which would take place in a year you probably wouldn’t expect it to. Of course, it didn’t come in 2018, a massive blue wave year where their ability to keep up the streak was never in serious doubt. But it also didn’t come in 2010 or 2014, both massive red waves that should have killed it off with ease. Rather, it came in 2022, a year that shouldn’t have taken any of the incumbents down.

But for State Auditor Julie Blaha, she would come within just 0.34% of losing it all, barely managing to win re-election against her Republican opponent, being the worst-performing Democrat statewide in the process.

While the strong results by the DFL in 2022 would still ultimately save her, it made it clear that when compared to other DFL politicians, there is something about her that people don’t find appealing. In a less favorable environment and against a candidate who wasn’t a total nobody or lunatic, it’s very likely that she would have been the one to lose the coveted statewide streak that the DFL has held since 2010. While her electability isn’t nearly as poor as the two politicians I’ve ranked below her, her record thus far has indicated that nominating her for any future statewide office is a considerable risk, one that isn’t worth taking when considering how many amazing options the DFL has in its bench.

C Tier

There is no one currently ranked in the C-Tier. This is probably where I would have put Dean Phillips if he hadn’t thrown his future political career into a woodchipper, but alas.

B Tier

Angie Craig (U.S. Representative for Minnesota’s 2nd District)

When I was in the process of making this article, I frequently shifted my placements for most of the people I have included in this list. None of them were particularly large ones, usually just the difference between being ranked slightly above or slightly below someone else. Nevertheless, there were changes I had to make, as giving their viability more thought and doing some more research on their policy record caused me to have to shift my reception.

However, in the case of Angie Craig, this question was never once on my mind, and further research into her electoral and policy record has only confirmed my priors. Out of everyone on this list, she is by far the most average in virtually every respect. Her voting record is pretty much right in line with the party, rarely straying away from them outside of symbolic gestures of independence. Her electoral record suggests no significant underperformances or overperformances, with Split Ticket’s WAR model giving her 2022 performance a rating of just R+0.4. She has fashioned herself as a moderate Democrat, a common theme among Democrats first elected in suburban districts as part of the 2018 blue wave. She is very happy to flex her record of working across the aisle in an era of congressional dysfunction, just like other swing-seat Democrats. Essentially, she’s the least offensive DFL politician they could put up in a statewide race.

This makes the prospects of a Craig nomination vary depending on who you ask. On the one hand, someone could see her as a safe, competent nominee who could beat back the GOP relatively easily and keep Minnesota on a steady course. On the other hand, someone could see her as nothing more than a symbol of the status quo, a sellout who won’t be willing to fight for any meaningful progressive causes.

My view of Angie Craig takes from both of these viewpoints. While I think she’s a good representative for her district, I would be lying if I said the idea of her being nominated wouldn’t be somewhat underwhelming. I don’t think she would veto or fight anything that the DFL would pass, nor do I buy the idea that she’s a sellout, but I can’t imagine her being particularly vocal about many DFL goals either. I think she would win a statewide campaign, but not by any more than expected for a DFL candidate.

Overall, I think she would do fine enough. There are better options that the DFL can choose from, hence why she’s only ranked at the bottom of B tier, but I find it difficult to imagine her being outright bad, as a lot of left-wing faction of the DFL seems to think. Truly, the perfect median candidate for this list.

Keith Ellison (Attorney General of Minnesota)

Truth be told, at least in regards to Minnesota’s result in the 2022 midterms, it was really hard to find anything that wasn’t truly exhilarating on election night for me. Virtually everything went the way it should have, from every statewide candidate holding on, the DFL holding onto their majority in the State House, to flipping the last bastion of Republican power in the State Senate, thus giving the power to enact the broad change we’ve been seeing since the start of 2023. It was an incredible night, and it took me a while to think of a result that made me the happiest of all.

However, I think I found the answer, that being Keith Ellison holding onto his seat. This was a race that, going into election day, I assumed was flipping over to the GOP. Not only was he far more controversial than any other statewide candidate, not only was his Republican opponent far less scandal-ridden than others, but polling had suggested that he was running well behind every other statewide candidate. I was anticipating a loss, an unfair rebuke of one of Minnesota’s finest public servants.

Fortunately, however, he would manage to barely hold on and defeat his Republican opponent by a 0.8% margin, keeping the Attorney General's office in Democratic hands.

This slim margin does undeniably cause him to rank lower, as similar to Blaha, it gives the possibility of a future statewide candidacy a risk factor that doesn’t exist with many other party leaders. But unlike Blaha, his policy and legal record allows him to stand out and earn himself a higher spot than he otherwise would have. Not only has he done a good job at handling hot topic cases such as the Derek Chauvin and Kim Potter cases, but he has also been a strong, consistent voice for criminal justice and police reform, both as State Attorney General and as U.S. Representative. He has also remained a solid progressive on other issues, and I have no doubt he’d be a strong fighter for DFL priorities if given the opportunity.

If he were nominated, it would certainly be a very tough race, especially against a strong Republican nominee. But given his strong record thus far, it’s a risk I’d be far more willing to take.

A Tier

Melvin Carter (Mayor of St. Paul)

Wow, the better side of the Twin Cities gets the cooler mayor. Go figure.

Despite his neighbor to the west being by far the worst politician on this list, Melvin Carter has managed to do a pretty solid job as Mayor of St. Paul. Thanks to his willingness to work with the city council, he has managed to preside over some legitimate policy wins for his city, whether it be a $15 minimum wage increase, reforms to the St. Paul Police Department, or financial support for immigrants entering the city. While it hasn’t been a perfect tenure, I would be lying if I said I haven’t been impressed with his performance, especially in comparison to Jacob Frey. As we watch other mayor’s political careers go down in flames, Carter’s role as mayor serves as a rare bright spot of competence and action, and as a result, he has successfully positioned himself as a future DFL leader going forward.

With that being said, how do I think he would do if given a higher role? Well, as I said before, Carter has had a pretty solid record thus par on policy, so I have little doubt that he would do a good job at promoting and keeping the DFL agenda alive. I also have full confidence that he could unite both the moderate and liberal wing of the party, something he has already done in his 2021 re-election, which saw him crush all of his opposition with ease in the first round of voting. Despite facing the challenges that come with being mayor, he has done an excellent job at uniting forces within the party to back him, and in a time when the DFL needs to stick together to protect its many achievements, that’s a major asset.

His only question mark, if you could call it that, is that he is technically untested on a statewide level. As of now, his only elections have been in the city of St. Paul, and while he has done quite well at campaigning and won by solid enough margins both times, it doesn’t always lend itself to a great statewide campaign, especially given the often unfair negative reputation that mayors get in this country. I think he would win, but compared to some of the other candidates in this tier, it’s slightly more risky.

But hey, Hubert Humphrey started his political career as a mayor too, so Carter’s got that going for him.

Steve Simon (Secretary of State of Minnesota)

Out of all the candidates listed in this article, this one’s placement is the easiest to explain. If you are looking for someone who is guaranteed to win and do so by a large margin that isn’t named Amy Klobuchar, I’ve got your guy.

While Steve Simon’s political career would begin with a somewhat underwhelming electoral showing in 2014, his performance in elections would continue to improve in every election, with him easily riding the blue wave to re-election in 2018, and then pulling off his masterpiece in 2022, defeating his Republican opponent by a 9-point margin, the best of any statewide DFL candidate and the only one to improve his margin compared to 2018.

Granted, there are some asterisks you could point to regarding his 2022 showing, such as his opponent being a complete lunatic and Democrats benefitting substantially from the issue of small-d democratic principles. But the mark of a good politician is being able to use the political environment of the time to their advantage, and in the case of Steve Simon, he has done this masterfully. If your number one concern is electability above all else, it’s hard to argue that anyone could beat Steve Simon.

So, why is he not in the S tier? I’ve thought about this placement quite a bit, but I ultimately decided to settle on an A-tier spot, because while he has done a great job at defending Minnesota’s democracy and liberal voting laws, he’s pretty low profile, and it’s less certain how he would manage the top job. This isn’t so much a point of doubt in Simon, I think he could do a good job, it’s just that the people above him have more experience in this regard, making them slightly safer picks.

Speaking of which…

Melissa Hortman (Speaker of the Minnesota House)

Whenever discussing the many accomplishments of the DFL-controlled legislature since it took power in 2023, I think it’s important to sometimes step back and remember something: None of this was inevitable. Winning a trifecta was certainly a major boon, but if the DFL legislative leaders had been incompetent and couldn’t get their caucus in order, the election could have served as nothing more than a wasted opportunity.

Fortunately, however, we had Melissa Hortman and Kari Dziedzic as the leaders of the party, so this dark timeline isn’t one we have to live through. Despite being given a slim majority with little room for error, Hortman has done an extraordinary job at bringing the caucus together behind practically every single DFL priority, from LGBTQ+ rights, paid and sick leave, and pro-union legislation. While some leaders in her position may have chosen to compromise and water down these priorities to get GOP votes, Hortman knew that such efforts were counterproductive and pointless. After all, she had the votes! Together with Dziedzic, she has managed to deliver several transformative, game-changing bills to the Governor’s desk, and in the process, make this state better with each passing day. In regards to policy and competence, Hortman is one of the very best not just in the state, but in the country too.

Similar to Carter, she does carry the minor issue of being untested on the statewide level, and Republicans will undoubtedly be ready to rain holy hell on her out of spite if she decides to run statewide. But given her record of competence thus far, I would have full faith in her ability to run a strong campaign against the Republicans. If the DFL chooses to nominate her for a statewide office in 2026, we should consider ourselves very lucky.

Erin Murphy (Minnesota Senate Majority Leader)

Here’s someone who has become a new addition to the state political radar, albeit under gloomy circumstances. After the resignation of Kari Dziedzic following her cancer diagnosis, the DFL was suddenly given the responsibility of picking a new State Senate leader. There were certainly many qualified people for the job, but throughout the entire process, I was always rooting for Erin Murphy, someone who I’ve supported politically since her first run for Governor in 2018. Clearly, the DFL listened to me and my friends, because low and behold, they decided to go with… Erin Murphy!

I didn’t expect it, but I’m thrilled that the DFL has decided to pick her. Ever since she entered politics through the State House in 2007, she has been one of the most steadfast and consistent allies for progressive causes, while also being one of the most effective in terms of rising through the ranks of the party, serving as one of the leaders behind the DFL’s progressive 2023 session and the top Senate leader behind its ongoing 2024 session. She has been more than happy to take on those who stand in her way, with her return to politics in 2020 starting with her forcing an incumbent into retirement, and even telling Jacob Frey to shove it by endorsing Kate Knuth for Mayor of Minneapolis in 2021. Even despite this, she remains in good graces thanks to her campaign skills, such as in 2022, where she led the DFL to victory in the State Senate. When it comes to policy, there aren’t many in Minnesota who are more willing to fight than her, whether it be against the Republicans or even those in her party, while also being pragmatic when necessary.

An Erin Murphy candidacy wouldn’t be flawless. She’s older than most of the people here, the Republicans will spend tons of money against her, and her 2018 primary loss does poke a small hole in her ability to appeal to moderates. But just like Hortman, her record thus far has indicated that she will handle an election with ease, and once in office, continue and expand on the DFL’s accomplishments. If she decides to run in 2026, I’ll be supporting her when I vote in the primary.

Well, unless…

S Tier

Peggy Flanagan (Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota)

Sometimes, the obvious choice is the correct one too.

More so than anyone else on the list, Peggy Flanagan is always floated as the defacto successor to Governor Tim Walz, which makes perfect sense. After all, she’s the lieutenant governor, and very rarely does the person second in command not receive speculation, whether they are qualified or unqualified. Many of Minnesota’s important governors have been former lieutenant governors, including Rudy Perpich, who was the subject of Roose Thoughts a few months ago. It’s a very strong place to start, and of the candidates I listed here, she’s the most likely to become the nominee in the event of a Walz retirement. So, the question is, would she do a good job?

Absolutely. Truth be told, I struggle to think of anyone else who could do better than her at this moment, hence why she’s the only candidate I have ranked in the S-tier. The other non-Frey candidates on this list, while each maintaining very positive qualities in their own right, do come with negatives that put a question mark on their potential efforts, whether it be big or small. Ilhan Omar, Julie Blaha, and Keith Ellison have electoral issues. Angie Craig isn’t particularly inspiring or much of a fighter. Steve Simon is low profile. Erin Murphy, Melvin Carter, and Melissa Hortman are untested on the statewide level. While I think you could support each one for different, entirely legitimate reasons, they harbor issues that could be to their detriment in the event of a statewide nomination or job.

In the case of Peggy Flanagan, I genuinely struggle to think of any flaws. She has been a lifelong advocate for left-liberal and progressive causes, particularly on indigenous rights and more recently, LGBTQ+ rights, giving her appeal to the left wing of the party. She has been right alongside Tim Walz throughout his entire governorship and won by very solid margins with him in elections. She’s still quite young, meaning there won’t be any concern over old age. Similar to her predecessor, she has taken an active role in the legislative process as lieutenant governor. Her victory would have a historical attachment to it, being the first woman and indigenous person elected as Governor of Minnesota, with the latter being especially important given Minnesota’s tragic history with Native communities. She has been more than happy to fight Republicans when necessary, understanding that fighting for progressive causes has been the key to the DFL’s success in recent years.

Look anywhere you want, and you’ll end up coming to the same conclusion I did while writing this: She’s truly spectacular. She carries much of the best qualities of the other candidates on this list, while also harboring none of the downsides. She can appeal to moderates while also keeping the DFL’s achievements alive. She can fight the Republicans when they try to oppose her agenda, whether it be in the legislative chambers or the polls, and win.

Keeping the DFL agenda alive won’t be easy. The Republicans will do everything they can to kill it, as I said before, progress is always in danger of being reversed. While there are certainly many capable politicians on this list, no one has proven that they can do the campaign and the job better than the North Star State’s 50th Lieutenant Governor.