What's Next for Minnesota and the DFL?
An analysis on the upcoming 2024 legislative session, elections, and potential for new leadership
If you have read any news about Minnesota in the last two years, you’re no doubt familiar with the highly consequential 2022 election result. After being stuck in gridlock with the Republican-held State Legislature for just under a decade, the DFL had finally been able to take control of the entire state with a slim majority, the first time they did so since 2012. While most people had expected the top DFL incumbents to hang on, hardly anyone could have predicted that this supposed red-wave year would have been the time when the Republican’s final hold on statewide influence evaporated. It was a shocking, but exhilarating result that painted a rosy picture for the future of Minnesota. Once seen as a party on the cusp of collapse after its poor 2016 performance, the DFL had successfully defended a title it has held since the early 1950s: the dominant party in Minnesota politics. Heading into 2023, there was seemingly nowhere to go but up.
Fast forward to today, and it’s clear that expectations were shattered, even among those who already held the party in very high regard. For the entire 2023 session, there seemingly wasn’t a single day where the DFL wasn’t in the process of passing a transformative piece of legislation. Virtually every single progressive and left-liberal policy goal was addressed here, from the expansion of LGBTQ+ and abortion protections, paid family and sick leave, putting Minnesota on track to be a clean energy leader by 2040, free school lunches for K-12 students, marijuana legalization, outlawing non-compete agreements, getting rid of the ugly and racist state flag, and so much more. As Governor Tim Walz loves to say, while other states were banning books and attacking trans youth, Minnesota was banishing hunger in schools. Simply put, the 2023 session was incredibly productive, ambitious, and set an example for what Democratic trifectas in other states could be doing.
With all of that being said, there is still work to do. After all, the DFL trifecta still has an entire year left to work with, and while the last session did successfully address several major progressive policy wishes, there are still changes left on the table the party can make ahead of the 2024 election. Beyond that, the 2024 session also forces the party to think about its leadership and electoral prospects, both of which are going to be key points of interest in the next few months. Unlike the 2023 session, the DFL is going to have to deal with issues outside of writing and passing policy, which makes it ripe for political analysis.
In this article, I want to go over what 2024 has in store for the DFL, from the policies it could address, to its standing in the 2024 elections, and capping it off with how the year could force a change in leadership, something that hasn’t occurred in well over a decade. In doing so, I want to show not just what I believe the DFL could do, but also how this year has the potential to be one of the most important in the history of the party.
Policy Goals
First, let’s go over the most important part of this article: What policies can the DFL address in the next session? While the 2023 session has a nearly endless list of goals thanks to years of trifecta preparation from top DFL leaders, the 2024 session is a bit trickier to predict, as the 2023 session’s highly productive nature meant that virtually every salient issue to voters was passed with relative ease. When it comes to issues that matter to the DFL base, such as abortion, gun control, the environment, and healthcare, there isn’t a lot more that the party can do that it hasn’t already done, something that top DFL leaders are acutely aware of. As such, the 2024 session will likely address more niche and local issues than the 2023 session, so there won’t be nearly as much to celebrate.
However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t issues left on the table. There is always more to do, and not every problem can be solved throughout a single legislative session. In particular, three major issues have caught public interest that I think is worth addressing in this piece: public construction projects, physician-assisted suicide, and the establishment of an Uber-Lyft minimum wage.
First, let’s go over public construction, which is the issue that the Governor is most interested in. Since the 2024 session is supposed to pass a bonding bill, it is a prime opportunity for both parties to get some spending for local projects in their respective districts. Unlike the other two issues I addressed, this one requires some support from the Republican Party, since bonding bills need 60% of the vote to pass. While this does somewhat limit the prospect of infrastructure investment, it’s still essentially guaranteed that some form of public construction investment will be passed. Even in the 2023 session, where the DFL struggled to get more than a single Republican vote for any bill they passed, they were still able to work together on a bonding bill that also included significant investment in public construction and infrastructure, mostly due to the DFL threatening to weaken investment in areas represented by Republicans. If there is anything I can guarantee heading into this year, it’s that the DFL is going to pass a bonding bill that includes significant investments in public construction by playing ball, just like they did last year.
Second, there’s the issue of physician-assisted suicide, which is when someone with a terminal illness voluntarily ends their life with the help of medical professionals. This is almost always done by those who know that the end of their life is near, and continued life would leave them dying in pain and suffering. It’s certainly very sad and heartbreaking, but it allows people to die in dignity and to go out on their terms, and it’s a choice the government should allow and respect. This is a position the DFL shares, which has already proposed a bill to address this exact issue. While some worried that the bill would be far too lenient and resemble the Canadian system, the bill only allows people suffering from terminal illnesses with less than six months to live to get assisted suicide. While this makes the policy itself a no-brainer, it’s still very unlikely to get a single Republican vote, who have been opposed to right-to-die legislation ever since the DFL considered it. This means that the bill will come down to getting every DFLer on board, which could be somewhat tricky given the nature of the policy itself. While DFL leadership has been extraordinarily skilled at getting the caucus together on almost every other issue thus far, right-to-die bills have been difficult for other states to rally behind or put much work into, so the path to getting it done is a bit more questionable than public construction.
Finally, there’s the Uber-Lyft minimum wage bill, where the story is a bit more complicated. In the 2023 session, after significant pressure from Minneapolis State Senator Omar Fateh, the Minnesota House and Senate passed a bill that officially created a minimum wage standard for Uber-Lyft drivers, as well as protections for drivers from company neglect. Of course, Uber and Lyft fought the bill at every turn, and after it was officially passed and sent to the Governor’s Desk, they threatened to pull out of the state altogether. Walz, likely believing that his ability to fight this was limited, issued his first veto as Governor against the bill, while also signing an executive order to create a commission to look into ways that would help compensate the workers while also keeping Uber and Lyft in the state. While I can understand the decision he made, it was still disappointing that the Governor didn’t call their bluff, especially since his commission ultimately failed to create a workable alternative by its conclusion in December, although some worker protection goals were shared by both Uber-Lyft and the drivers. Nevertheless, given the lackluster result of the commission and Omar Fateh’s insistence on getting it done, Uber-Lyft will almost certainly get a vote once again, and like last time, predicting what will happen with it is difficult to say. On the one hand, Walz could end up signing the same bill he had previously vetoed, either because he sees it as the lesser evil to doing nothing or because he wishes to use it as a political tool for the DFL in 2024. On the other hand, he could end up vetoing it again for the same reason he did in 2023, which could potentially be amplified in his mind considering the upcoming elections in the fall. For the sake of the drivers, I hope the Governor signs the bill or at least finds a compromise solution, but that’s something we are going to have to analyze in these next few months.
Overall, while the policies I listed are not nearly as eye-catching or transformative as the ones passed in the 2023 session, they still represent a significant change in public policy that would continue to see Minnesota go in the progressive direction it has been going since the beginning of last year. From a policy perspective, these are all good changes I think would better the state, and it would be a shame if the DFL missed on any of them out of fear of the election.
Speaking of which…
Election Prospects
As I’m writing this piece, President Joe Biden’s 2024 standing is not looking peachy. While he entered 2023 potentially on track to get back some popularity he lost in 2021, his handling of the debt ceiling issue and his uncritical support of Israel have pushed him back down in the slumps, with most polls showing him behind Donald Trump in the popular vote and several important swing states. While his standing could improve in the next few months, starting the year off in a position this poor is not a good sign, and it paints a dangerous picture for Democrats as they fight to retain control of the White House.
So, what does this have to do with Minnesota? Well, first and foremost, it means that the DFL is going to have to deal with sharing the ticket with an unpopular president. Assuming that Biden’s position doesn’t improve by November, it could result in the DFL losing a few points that it otherwise would have held due to the unpopularity of Biden. Given how narrow the DFL’s victory in the State House was last year, this is an anchor that the party is going to have to look out for, and if it gets bad enough, we may look at an election that sees the Republicans flip the State House, and potentially even win the state on a presidential level due to third party vote splitting.
However, this is by no means a guarantee for three main reasons. The first is Amy Klobuchar, who is going to be running for a fourth term this year. As I’ve discussed in previous articles, the senior Minnesota Senator has always been an electoral powerhouse, and heading into 2024, she is essentially guaranteed to win re-election even if Biden ends up losing Minnesota. While her popularity has not historically been able to trickle down to other DFL candidates on the ballot, her presence does allow her to play the “generic Democrat” role that an unpopular president simply cannot, which could give some breathing room to other DFL candidates who aren’t nearly as well known. The second factor is the Minnesota GOP, a hopelessly incompetent state party that has been dealing with severe financial issues ever since it got swept out of power in the 2022 midterms. While it could get flushed with more cash and could even get some power thanks to Trump’s obsession with the state, their extremism and lack of a clear vision for the state serves as a major asset for the DFL. Finally, there’s the Dobbs effect, which has been a massive boon to the DFL for well over a year now. This is reflected in presidential polling, where Joe Biden still manages to lead against Trump in Minnesota even despite his terrible standing nationwide. While the passage of abortion protections could prove to weaken the Dobbs effect somewhat, the Minnesota GOP’s extremist policies and image can help bring the issue right back to the forefront, which could prove to be decisive for the DFL in its fight to keep the State House.
Ultimately, while Biden’s poor standing could prove to be disastrous for the DFL at first glance, looking further into the problem reveals that the party’s outlook isn’t quite as depressing as it seems. Deep down, they’d probably prefer not sharing a ballot with an unpopular president, and most DFL candidates will likely do whatever they can to avoid talking about him. But their chance of holding the State House is still alive and well, and as of right now, the fundamentals still currently favor the party scoring a third and fourth trifecta session. That being said, a Republican win is also not impossible, and if they can ride Trump’s coattails in any meaningful sense against a weakened Biden, it could result in them pulling off a narrow victory in the State House. Either way, this election is going to prove to be a challenge for leadership, and depending on the result, could prove to be game-changing when all is said and done.
Well, this brings us to the final topic…
Leadership
As I’ve mentioned in articles before, the DFL is a remarkably successful statewide party. Ever since it managed to flip the governor’s office from red to blue in the 2010 midterms, the party has not managed to lose a single statewide race since then, whether they be in red, blue, or neutral political environments. While they have lost the State House and Senate a few times, the DFL’s dominant position in the state has not been in doubt for decades, and it has allowed the party to be flushed with cash compared to their GOP counterparts.
Of course, this success is due to many different factors, and it would be a mistake if I gave all the credit to leadership. But they have played an undeniably important role, and the one guy who has presided over all of that is Ken Martin, the head of the DFL and one of the longest-serving state chairs in the entire country.
Ever since he first became chair of the debt-filled party after the 2010 midterms which saw them lose the State House and Senate, Ken Martin has been at the head of a party that has kept up a record of some success every election cycle. His first election in 2012 brought immediate success for him and his credibility as the DFL flipped both the State House and Senate, winning a trifecta for the first time since 1988. While 2014 and 2016 would prove to be disappointing for the party, the statewide streak continuing and Clinton’s narrow victory in the state proved to be enough for Martin to keep his job, and in retrospect, it would be the weakest point for the party under his leadership. The next three elections that followed would prove to be very solid showings for the party, with 2018 seeing the DFL flip the State House, 2020 seeing Biden doing far better in Minnesota than Clinton, and 2022 seeing the DFL take full control of the state via flipping the State Senate. While Martin’s tenure hasn’t been perfect for the party, he is generally regarded very favorably by top Democratic Party officials for his fundraising and his party’s success at the ballot box, with him even being promoted to Vice Chair of the DNC in 2017, and Tim Walz leading the gubernatorial effort for the Democrats in 2024. The DFL’s success keeps his leadership role alive, and if the DFL does well in 2024, he’ll likely be re-elected to the chair with a comfortable mandate.
As I said before though, while the DFL is favored to do well in 2024, there is a real possibility that things go south, especially if Biden’s standing in the polls gets worse and hurts the DFL down-ballot more than expected. If the DFL manages to lose in 2024, despite his long tenure of overseeing success, Ken Martin may go down with it for two reasons. The first is pretty simple: He’s been in charge for more than a decade and people will want to clean house if his party goes down in defeat, especially if the all-valuable statewide streak is broken. While Martin has presided over mediocre results before in 2014 and 2016, he was still only in his first or second term, was good at fundraising, and had a history of success before those hiccups. While that would still be true if the DFL blew it in 2024, that would be a much harder case to make in the face of demand for new blood, which would be further amplified by the second reason there might be pitchforks out for Martin: His colorful personality. It’s no secret to those in the progressive DFL that Ken Martin is not exactly friendly with their wing of the party, as can be observed here, here, here, and much more. While this has understandably annoyed the progressive wing, Martin’s record of success has prevented them from making a serious case to topple him. However, if Martin oversees a DFL failure in 2024, the case for removing him suddenly becomes much more legitimate, and combined with the progressive wings’ anger against him, it could potentially result in a change in leadership for the first time in over a decade.
That being said, this is all ultimately just speculation. It’s possible that even in the worst-case scenario, it all still works out for Martin thanks to his past successes and excellent fundraising ability. He may retire even after a big victory, seeing it as a strong way to go out after leading the party through countless victories. He may be ousted even in the event of a victory as more progressive DFL officials win elections in 2024. In any case, I believe that this year could potentially bring big changes within the DFL itself, especially if things go poorly, so be on the lookout at the latter end of the year.
Conclusion
In my piece going over the failures of the Minnesota Republican Party, I mentioned at the end that the party missed a huge moment to capitalize on a strong performance, in their case being the 2016 election. Of course, much of that was thanks to their own issues, whether it be through nominating extreme Trump-worshipping candidates, lack of effort to take down DFL incumbents, and terrible fundraising numbers. But much of that was also due to the DFL understanding the moment after 2016, with the party seemingly always knowing what issue to hit Republicans on. While it hasn’t been perfect, their performance in 2018, 2020, and especially 2022 was nothing short of fantastic, and when combined with Republican failures, it has allowed Minnesota to stay solidly in the left-of-center camp, albeit by a slim margin.
Heading into 2024, this task is going to be difficult to keep up in many respects, whether it be pleasing the base in the legislature itself, getting the party under control and unified, and putting up a good fight against the Republicans. There’s a small chance that all of this pressure could cause the party to spiral out of control, taking down the party’s trifecta and any hope of continuing Minnesota’s left-liberal project. But these same difficult problems existed in 2018, 2020, and 2022 as well. It wasn’t like there weren’t any internal divisions then either, especially after the party was reeling from Trump nearly winning the state in 2016. But when all was said and done, thanks to the party’s strong ability to get everyone together and exploit Republican weaknesses, it went to the ballot box and crushed it, reaffirming its status as the dominant party of Minnesota each time.
As an optimist, I’d like to think we should expect the same in 2024, and as a DFLer myself, I think the future is bright. There are reasons to be concerned, and I’ll be the first to turn on the alarm bells if I believe they are going to take down the trifecta in November. But as of right now, I think the party of Hubert Humphrey will remain the top dog after 2024, which is great for everyone who lives in the land of 10,000 lakes.
If nothing else, I hope my optimism is proven right just so guys like this can stay out of power.