Final 2024 Election Prediction: Kamala Harris Wins

Why I believe that the Vice President will prevail

Hey, readers! This is an update to the prediction I made for the presidential race back on September 18th, 2024. For the most part, I went into that piece assuming that while the race was certainly not stagnant, its fundamentals were unlikely to shift much in the next 48 days. Kamala Harris had historically accurate predictors on her side, polls in her favor, and an unpopular opponent who was in the process of flaming out mentally. While I anticipated a close race, I felt comfortable giving the Vice President a narrow edge, winning every state that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 + North Carolina.

Now that we are just a single day away from the election, I’m here to say that I don’t think the top line has changed much. The Kamala Harris campaign has not been free from occasional slip-ups, but her operation over the last month has done an excellent job of keeping up the momentum she has gained since she entered the race in July. Nowhere is this more evident than right now. While Donald Trump has spent this last week desperately trying to pivot away from the racist controversy surrounding his now-infamous rally at Madison Square Garden, Kamala Harris has largely stayed the course and stuck to her months-long pitch on competence, democracy, abortion, and the economy. With many voters now tuning into the election, this distinction between the two candidates could end up being critical, especially if reports on late-breaking voters are to be believed. Whatever the case may be, these last few days have only reaffirmed my months-long resolve on the election: I believe that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will be elected President and Vice President on Tuesday. Here’s why.

My Official 2024 Presidential Prediction: November 4th, 2024

When looking strictly at the Electoral College, there isn’t much difference with this new map. Compared to my prediction in September, only Arizona has changed hands, depriving Kamala Harris of 11 fewer electoral votes than I gave her two months ago. At face value, this makes it appear that she lost ground and that the race has tightened up, albeit not that significantly.

However, my conclusion is the exact opposite of this. While the race hasn’t evolved much since September, I believe Kamala Harris has made up important ground that leaves her in an even stronger spot to win than my last prediction. To demonstrate this, let me show you every change I made:

Arizona: Tilt Democratic → Tilt Republican

Nevada: Lean Democratic → Tilt Democratic

Kansas: Safe Republican → Likely Republican

Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District: Safe Republican → Likely Republican

Iowa: Likely Republican → Lean Republican

Ohio: Likely Republican → Lean Republican

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Likely Republican → Lean Republican

Pennsylvania: Tilt Democratic → Lean Democratic

Minnesota: Likely Democratic → Safe Democratic

Virginia: Likely Democratic → Safe Democratic

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: Likely Democratic → Safe Democratic

As you can see, nine of the eleven changes I have made to my prediction since September have improved the Vice President’s standing. While her odds of getting to 319 electoral votes are lower than two months ago, her chance of crossing the 270 electoral vote threshold of victory has gone up noticeably, which is ultimately what matters more than anything else.

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, the main culprit behind this is my shift toward Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. While early voting numbers still point to a close race, high-quality polling has consistently given the Vice President relatively solid numbers in the Keystone State. On top of this, the recent controversy at Madison Square Garden and late breakers skewing towards Harris have made Trump’s chances of making important gains in the Philadelphia area considerably more difficult. Trump certainly can’t be counted out, but most signs point to his standing being shaky. Since Pennsylvania is the most likely state to be the final tipping point, this shift towards Harris boosts her overall chances considerably.

As for the other changes that favor her, most of them aren’t too substantial. Almost all of them are in solidly red and blue states, none of which are going to decide the election tomorrow. With that being said, the most eye-catching shift is in Iowa, a state that most election nerds—including yours truly—had written off entirely before this year. While 2022 and early Selzer polls had made me assume that the state was off the map, recent data has indicated that something real may be brewing. Despite voting for Trump by solid margins twice in a row, the latest Selzer poll has shown Harris leading by 3 points, a gigantic shift to the left compared to 2020.

I’m still skeptical that this points to an upset Harris win in the Hawkeye State—even Selzer hasn’t been free from minor polling misses—but it is worth considering from this important perspective: How this represents the backlash to the Dobbs ruling in the northern swing states. Back in July, Iowa’s courts permitted the legality of a six-week abortion ban, and this has resulted in a massive backlash against the Iowa Republicans. The incumbent Republican Governor’s approval rating has tanked down to the negatives, abortion was rated as a top issue among Iowa voters in the Selzer poll, and older women in Iowa backed Harris by eyewatering margins. While the radical nature of this abortion ban likely means that much of Iowa’s Democratic shift is localized, it still portends a major problem for the Republican Party in other pro-choice, midwestern states. Since the Trump campaign has made almost no attempt to moderate this issue, the backlash to Dobbs will be alive and well, and if Trump can’t replace those losses with meaningful gains elsewhere, his path in the Midwest becomes very difficult to conceive. This—alongside some solid polling—is what compels me to make my shift towards Harris in Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

As for the two shifts I’ve made towards Trump, both of these are the result of early indicators and polling not being nearly as strong for Harris as I assumed. Arizona is the most notable example of this, with most high-quality polling still showing Trump narrowly ahead of Harris. While there is reasonable skepticism behind this, especially in the aftermath of 2022, there aren’t enough high-quality surveys for Harris for me to be confident enough to go against the polls this time. It’s easily the toughest call on this list, but if I had to tip the scales towards anyone in the Grand Canyon State, I would go with Trump. Nevada is a similar story, but since I’ve long been more bullish for Harris in the state due to better polling and the early vote numbers, I still feel comfortable giving the Vice President the advantage, albeit more narrowly than in my last prediction.

Overall, while her margin in the electoral college has decreased since September, Harris’ easiest path to victory—a clean sweep of the northern swing states—is looking more favorable to her than ever. While Trump picking one of them off is not out of the question, Harris comes into Election Day as the clear favorite in all three, and by extension, the election itself.

Additional 2024 Predictions

As of now, I haven’t made official prediction maps for the U.S. Senate or the eleven governorships up this year. So, let’s change that!

My Official 2024 U.S Senate Prediction: November 4th, 2024

Most of these shouldn’t be too controversial. All of these follow the trends we have seen in polling pretty closely, and unless there is a major polling miss in favor of Republicans tomorrow, we should anticipate a 51(GOP)-49(Dem) U.S. Senate.

Though, for what it’s worth, a U.S. Senate that depended on the vote of Dan Osborn would make for some amazing content to analyze for the next two years. To Nebraska voters, please don’t deprive us of this golden opportunity.

My Official 2024 Gubernatorial Predictions: November 4th, 2024

Once again, most of these aren’t too controversial. Since most of these are in states with solid leanings or popular incumbents, there wasn’t ever going to be a lot of variance in how these states leaned throughout the year.

However, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been anything interesting. As I’m sure you’re all aware at this point, the North Carolina gubernatorial contest has become a total disaster for the GOP, with their porn-addict Nazi nominee on track to lose by well over double digits. Even a historic polling error can’t save him anymore, and depending on how badly he loses, it could be a real problem for the top of the ticket. Indiana has also seen some interesting polling as the current Republican nominee has fully embraced his right-wing extremism, though it probably won’t be enough to produce anything more than an embarrassing underperformance. Lastly, we have New Hampshire, by far the most competitive gubernatorial contest all year. While I’ve long held the belief that polarization would eventually boost the Democrats enough to flip this seat, polling has not meaningfully improved for them. I hesitate to give the Republicans a large advantage because the Granite State will also vote for Kamala Harris by a very solid margin on the same ballot, but the polls are just too harsh for the Democrats to ignore.

You’re probably also curious about my feelings on the U.S. House. While I don’t have enough information to make a specific prediction on every district, I would say that the Democrats are likely to flip the chamber tomorrow. The results will almost certainly correspond with the presidential result, and since I believe Kamala Harris is favored to win, I’m extending that to the House Democrats too.

Final Thoughts

Fundamentally, the reason why Kamala Harris is favored to win the presidency has not changed since September. heading into 2024, there was no other contest that the American people were dreading more than a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Both were extremely unpopular and older than dirt, a depressing sign for the future of the country. Anyone who was willing to offer an alternative to that could have emerged as a clear frontrunner. While some in the GOP hoped that they could be the ones to take that call, the Democrats would beat them to it when Biden was dropped in July.

While this move would come late, it has undeniably paid the party massive electoral dividends. Once on track to be defeated by Trump quite comfortably, the Democrats are now on track to keep their hold on the Oval Office for another four years. By embracing a sense of new energy and enthusiasm, the Democrats took a bold risk that has undeniably paid off. Even if Kamala Harris ends up losing on Tuesday, the fact that the party has been able to make this close is very impressive.

It’s also extremely concerning for the future of the GOP. Make no mistake, they should be winning right now. Perceptions of the economy are sour, the incumbent Democratic president is deeply unpopular, and anti-incumbency sentiment is sweeping the democratic world. This should be a prime opportunity for the GOP to take power in a landslide.

But they aren’t on track to do this, and it’s pretty much all thanks to these guys.