2024 Election Analysis: The Vice President is Favored

Why I believe Kamala Harris is more likely to cross 270 electoral votes than Donald Trump

When I thought of writing this article in the aftermath of the first presidential debate, I was prepared to deliver an extremely bleak picture for the Democrats.

After putting a historically bad performance that confirmed America’s biggest fears about him, Joe Biden’s re-election campaign appeared to be spiraling into a complete disaster. Polling had already been mediocre for the 46th president for the entire year, but this would mark the turning point where it became downright apocalyptic. Most swing states gave Trump comfortable leads, states previously thought to be likely for Biden became highly competitive, and even some safe blue states started to show some cracks. Not even my home state of Minnesota, which I had previously written off for Republicans almost entirely, looked like it would be spared from a Trump victory. By the start of July, any hope for a decisive Biden victory was long gone, and the possibility of a Trump landslide began to look probable.

Thankfully for Democrats, the situation has completely flipped on its head. While there were some skeptics within the DNC of just how well it would go, the transition from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the leader of the Democratic ticket has been a massive success for the party. Solidly blue states are back to being solidly blue, swing states are once again back in play, and even some red-leaning states have been showing small hints of potential. It’s been an extraordinary turnaround, and in the aftermath of Kamala Harris’ clear victory in the presidential debate, I believe that as of right now, she is the favorite to win the presidency.

In this article, I’d like to show why I believe that by going over every single state I deem to be potentially competitive, and in the process, go over why I believe each candidate is favored in each case. While Trump’s path to victory is definitely still there, Harris has many more paths to work from, a better chance at gaining ground, and more momentum on her side.

My Official 2024 Presidential Prediction: September 18th, 2024

My electoral college prediction for 2024. The colors represent how much I believe each candidate is favored. The redder the state, the more I believe Trump is favored. The bluer the state, the more I believe Harris is favored.

Minnesota

Starting this list, we have my home state and frequent subject of Roose Thoughts, the North Star State of Minnesota. As stated previously, I’ve already covered my thoughts on the political standing of the state in the 2024 election before, but since that article was written almost a year ago, I feel it’s important to provide an update on how it’s been going here.

In short, if you were to take a snapshot between then and now, not much would have changed. While Biden’s collapse in support nationwide throughout 2024 did put the state’s status as a blue state in question, Harris’ entry into the race has put the back where it was when I wrote my first article: solidly in the Democratic column. While Democratic gains in the Twin Cities metro looked to be in trouble with Biden thanks to the large uncommitted vote, Harris’ presence alone has largely stopped them from leaving the fold. With the Dobbs decision and anti-democratic rhetoric still fresh in the minds of suburban voters, there is virtually no opportunity for Trump—a man who embodies both of those things to a tee—to make any gains with them. Rural areas are not only deeply Republican already, but they are also slowly losing population as young people move to the cities and conservatives move to more conservative states. There just isn’t much for Republicans to work with, and Harris should win the state comfortably.

However, I’m leaving the state out of the “Safe Democratic” column for two reasons. The first is that while every statewide Democrat did win the state in 2022, not all of these victories were created equally. While Governor Tim Walz and Secretary of State Steve Simon each won by solid, high-single-digit margins, the other two statewide candidates had a far tougher time, with Attorney General Keith Ellison and State Auditor Julie Blaha each only winning their races by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Additionally, polling hasn’t presented the picture of a runaway Harris victory, with her leading by around 6 points. While 6 points is still a pretty good margin overall, it’s also a decline from Biden’s 7-point win in 2020, so it’s not nearly enough to properly write off the state.

To be clear, the state should still be voting for Harris when all is said and done, likely by a sizable margin. The state of the race is mostly set, and it’s extremely unlikely that we get an environment terrible enough that Minnesota is suddenly in play. But it’s not impossible either, so I hesitate to take the state off the map just yet.

Minnesota Rating: Likely Democratic

Virginia

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, no other state in the entire country—besides Colorado—was easier to take off the swing state table than the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Once a solidly Republican state throughout the latter half of the 20th century, Northern Virginia would begin to urbanize rapidly at the turn of the 21st century, bringing in hundreds of thousands of educated, white-collar workers in the process. While the Republican Party once had a respectable level of support among these voters, the rise of Trump and education polarization has completely eroded it, significantly limiting its appeal in the state in the process. While the state was highly competitive during the Obama era, it broke away from the GOP in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the state by 5 points, improving on Obama’s margin despite performing worse nationwide.

While some initially chalked this up to Tim Kaine—the state’s junior U.S. Senator—being on the ticket, results since 2016 would prove that this result was no one-off. In 2017, the Democrats would win the Governor’s Mansion by 8 points and nearly flip the State House. In 2018, Tim Kaine would win re-election by 16 points and Democrats would flip three U.S. House seats, all of which were in highly educated suburbs. In 2019, the Democrats would flip both the State House and State Senate, giving them a legislative trifecta for the first time since 1994. Finally, the 2020 election would see Joe Biden carry the state by a 10-point margin, making massive gains in the suburbs in the process. Throughout the entire Trump presidency, Virginia Democrats had successfully utilized the unpopularity of the president among educated voters to their full benefit, and in the process, made it appear that Republicans were shut out of the state for a long, long time.

However, 2021 would throw a large wrench into this perceived strength. As the shakey Afghanistan withdrawal and slowing Build Back Better negotiations made Biden’s approval rating fall into the slumps, Virginia Republicans would make a roaring comeback, flipping back the Governorship, Lieutenant Governorship, Attorney General’s office, and State House in just one night. While some of this was the result of the strong Republican environment nationwide, the outright victory by the Republicans was still a highly impressive feat, singlehandedly putting the Democrat’s perceived lock on the state into doubt. While 2022 and 2023 would prove to be much better results for Democrats, neither of them were won by margins similar to those during the Trump era, suggesting that at least some voters had flipped over to the right since the start of Biden’s presidency.

So, what does this mean for 2024? In all likelihood, not that much. While Biden’s incredibly weak standing made some consider the state a sleeper flip for Trump in November, Harris’ entry into the race has put the state’s polling back into a solid place for Democrats, with an average of around Harris+8-9. While the results in 2021 suggest that these educated suburbanites can be willing to break from the Democrats once in a while, it’s usually only under highly negative circumstances and for a Republican that has perceived moderation. Unless the news starts to get really bad for Democrats and Kamala Harris in the next two months, Trump’s path to winning the state will remain minuscule.

Virginia Rating: Likely Democratic

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District

In comparison to the other batch of places I’m going over in this article, this one will be one of the shortest of them all, entirely because the story behind this entry is a pretty simple one.

Since Nebraska splits its electoral votes by congressional district, the Omaha-based 2nd district has been able to play a small role in national politics that doesn’t exist for other blue cities stuck in red states. That role, just like Virginia, is a story representing Republican decline among educated, white-collar suburbanites, something that Omaha is filled to the brim with. While the district was highly competitive in the late 2000s and 2010s, the district would shift solidly to the left in 2020 when it voted for Biden by 6 and a half points, making it the biggest swing leftward for any flipped electoral college vote.

There are still some minor warning signs, such as the district being gerrymandered to be slightly more Republican and the Republican Congressman Don Bacon’s continued electoral success in the 2nd. But since there is virtually no indication of Harris meaningfully slipping with educated suburbanites, this should be an easy win for her.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District Rating: Likely Democratic

Michigan

In comparison to almost every state in the country, Michigan has stood out as one of the clearest examples of Republican decline thanks to the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

After two presidential elections where the state voted to the right of the nation, 2022 would see the Wolverine State be swept with a massive blue wave that took every observer by storm. Despite being the constant target of right-wing attacks, incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer would not only win re-election by a gigantic 11-point margin, but she would bring the rest of the party with her too, with Michigan Democrats sweeping every statewide office and winning a legislative trifecta for the first time since 1984.

It was an absolutely remarkable achievement that was spawned in large part thanks to Michigan Democrats successfully using the backlash from the Dobbs decision to full effect. Not only did they put a statewide vote on codifying abortion access on every ballot, but they tied all their other statewide and local races to it too, promising that they’d do everything they could to protect it. It was an extremely effective play, with Democrats not only winning suburban cities that they had flipped in the post-Trump era by massive margins, but they also won back many industrial, blue-collar cities that they had lost during the Trump era too. The final result was a Democratic landslide, and it put the Democrats in a very solid place ahead of the 2024 election.

However, there are still some notable problems for the party that could put their chances in jeopardy. Firstly, the ongoing war in Gaza has resulted in notable losses of support for Democrats among core constituencies, particularly among young people and the Arab American community. While Harris’ entry into the race has dampened this vitriol to a certain extent, she still faces questions among this group of voters, which based on the uncommitted vote from a few months ago, is around 100,000 strong. If Harris can’t get enough of these voters on board, her chances in the state could start to look more bleak. Additionally, while abortion rights played its part in securing a massive Democratic victory in 2022, its ability to secure another Democratic victory this time is far less certain. Michigan—unlike many of the other swing states we’ll be going over—is currently being controlled by a Democratic trifecta that already enshired abortion rights into the state constitution. While the backlash against Republicans for Dobbs will never truly go away, it could play less of a role than Democrats might hope for.

However, when all is said and done, I’d still argue Kamala Harris comes out favored. As I said previously, Harris’ entrance into the race has noticeably calmed the tension between the Democratic Party and its Gaza critics. While she’ll still likely lose a solid chunk of them, it won’t be anywhere near as cataclysmic as it would have been for Biden, the man who inspired those 100,000 uncommitted voters in the first place. While abortion may not be as central as it is in other states thanks to Democratic rule, the competitive nature of the state will still be more than enough to inspire people to vote out of protection for their rights. Higher turnout among black voters compared to Biden will net Democrats a significant chunk of votes that could very well be decisive. The fastest-growing parts of the state are almost all leaning Democratic thanks to their gains with educated voters. While polling suggests a tight race ahead of November, Harris still leads Trump on average by just under 2 points, giving her a slight edge in this critical state.

Overall, while a Trump victory in Michigan is certainly very plausible, Harris comes out favored when looking at the most important factors. Whether it’s past elections, the fundamentals, the important issues, and even the polling, the Vice President comes out on top in every category, albeit narrowly. A Trump victory wouldn’t be a major upset, but that doesn’t mean their hill to climb isn’t noticeably steeper.

Michigan Rating: Lean Democratic

Wisconsin

Throughout the first half of 2024, as Joe Biden’s re-election campaign was slowly unraveling, Wisconsin bizarrely stood alone as the only major swing state where his numbers weren’t moving much. Even as Biden lost massive ground in the Sun Belt and modest ground in the rest of the Midwest, Wisconsin was remarkably consistent throughout most of the campaign, with Biden still often managing to pull small leads with pollsters that gave him far worse numbers elsewhere. While this phenomenon would eventually break following his atrocious June debate, it still gave Democrats a strong place in Wisconsin politics, something that was thought to be on the decline throughout the entire Trump era.

With that being said, how is the race now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee? Well, thanks to the boost that the Democrats have gotten from swapping Biden out, we have a far clearer picture of how Wisconsin is going, and it’s a pretty good one for Democrats. Not only has Harris held onto Biden’s strength with white voters, but she has also been doing significantly better than Biden with many core Democratic constituencies, particularly young people and minorities. Both of these will be vital to a Democratic victory in a state where so much of its base is from two deeply young, diverse, urban, and Democratic cities: Milwaukee and Madison. Not only are Republicans going to pay the price for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but their legislative stranglehold on the state means that their presence will get people out to vote in droves, especially since this is the first election since the Wisconsin Supreme Court redrew the legislative maps to be more balanced. All of this and more has resulted in Harris polling ahead of Trump by an average of around 3 points, a very solid margin that makes it her best major swing state. From this, it’s quite easy to make the case that she’s favored in the Badger State.

However, similar to Michigan, there are still some question marks on display on here. While Harris is polling very solid numbers in Wisconsin, it’s important to mention that many of these same polls have also underestimated Republicans in both 2016 and 2020, giving the impression that the state was far less competitive than it really was. While both of these misses are explainable—with lack of education weighing affecting the former¹ and COVID-19 nonresponse bias affecting the latter²—Wisconsin still came out of it as the largest swing state miss in both cases. While I don’t generally like believing that these kinds of polling errors exist for no reason, I don’t think it’s necessarily an absurd conclusion to arrive at in Wisconsin’s case. Additionally, despite Dobbs, Wisconsin Republicans didn’t entirely flame out in the 2022 elections. Granted, it wasn’t a stellar performance by any means, after all, they still lost three competitive statewide races. But unlike their neighbors in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Republicans were able to score two statewide wins, those being for the U.S. Senate seat and the Treasurer’s office. While neither one of their victories exceeded 2 points, it still gives them something of a winning model in a post-Dobbs world, even if Trump is not the best guy to win on said model.

Even when factoring in every Republican advantage, Democrats still come out as the clear favorites. While the potential for a polling miss isn’t off the table, there isn’t much to indicate that it will occur in 2024. While Republicans do have recent statewide victories under their belt, Democrats have a far more energized base and more impressive results to counteract them. While Trump is still polling close to Harris, 3-point leads aren’t usually wrong either. For these reasons, while Republicans are still in play, the land of beer and cheese is trending toward the Democrats.

Wisconsin Rating: Lean Democratic

Nevada

Throughout most of this presidential campaign, there wasn’t a single state that Biden won in 2020 that looked more likely to flip than the Silver State of Nevada. Even when compared to other states in the Sun Belt, polling for Biden was hilariously atrocious. Not only did he never lead a single poll in the state after October 10th, 2023, but he wasn’t even putting in remotely respectful numbers when he was down. At best, he was only barely within the margin of error with his best pollsters, and at worst, he was down by double digits. Even when I was able to make somewhat bullish cases for Biden, I couldn’t even imagine a world where he’d somehow hold onto Nevada. Prior to July 21st, I wasn’t far away from just writing off the state entirely.

However, once Biden was swapped out with Harris, everything changed. Outside of North Carolina, there is no other swing state where Democrats have seen such a turnaround in the last two months. Once struggling to even poll above 45%, recent polls have shown Harris taking the lead from Trump outright, completely erasing his gains over the last year. While this lead is very small—the best averages still only show her ahead by around 1 point—it still represents a miraculous recovery that keeps the hopes of Nevada Democrats alive. If I was one of them, I’d consider myself blessed.

But the important question is this: will the switch be enough to keep the state out of Trump’s hands by itself?

Honestly, I’d say that’s more likely than anything else. Firstly, from a demographic standpoint, Harris’ surge makes complete sense. While Nevada is a highly diverse and unionized state, its educated population is also lower than most other states in the Sun Belt. This was terrible news for Biden, who struggled immensely with minority voters, particularly Hispanics who make up a massive portion of the state. However, since Harris is far more popular with people of color than Biden ever was, this demographic makeup is significantly less problematic for her. Additionally, Nevada Democrats also managed to get a vote for abortion rights on the ballot via referendum, a massive vote and enthusiasm boost for them in this heavily pro-choice state. Finally, thanks in large part to its small size and mostly uncompetitive U.S. Senate contest, Republicans haven’t bothered to invest much of anything into saving Nevada, not even securing any new ad reservations for September, October, and November. Given the fact that Nevada only has 6 electoral votes and is unlikely to influence the race one way or another, Republicans have reason to give up on the state and focus their endeavors elsewhere, but it does notably lower their chances in my eyes. As this cycle continues, I would expect Harris’ numbers to improve in Nevada polling, and by November, I don’t think it’s going to be in the discussion much.

However, this is by no means guaranteed. While he isn’t leading there anymore, and I don’t expect he’ll take it back barring major problems for Democrats, Trump is still polling extremely close to Harris right now, and that isn’t for no reason. While Nevada’s highly diverse population has been much more favorable to Harris than Biden, Trump still polls fairly well with Hispanic voters, meaning that if he were able to get larger shifts among them, it could tip the balance enough to win back the state, especially since Harris doesn’t have many educated suburban voters to fall back onto if she falters. While abortion rights being on the ballot will hurt his chances, it’s worth noting that pro-choice politics are far more popular than Democratic politics, so much like in Florida, there will be a sizable chunk of Nevada voters who will vote for Trump AND abortion rights. As contradictory as that is, it represents a chunk of voters large enough that a vote on abortion by itself doesn’t necessarily doom Trump.

However, I don’t suspect either of these will change the trajectory of the state. While Harris may not be able to eliminate all of Trump’s increased appeal with minority communities, her presence alone has already made a massive difference in winning back the thousands of people who left Biden behind, in addition to the boost she’ll get from increased minority turnout. As Republican funding dries up, this is a problem that will only get worse for Trump, and by November, I imagine that Harris will have the clear, but narrow edge.

Nevada Rating: Lean Democratic

Arizona

Plenty of Republican parties have seen a fall from grace since the start of the Trump era, but almost none of them are as self-inflicted and clearly deserved as the Arizona Republican Party’s downfall.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think that the party could have avoided much of the backlash. Trump being on the national stage was always going to cause major bleeding in the party, especially one that was built on strength with white-collar, educated voters in the Phoenix area. But ever since 2016, they have done no favors for themselves in trying to solve this problem. Rather than try to play for moderate voters turned off by Trump’s rhetoric against John McCain—their decades-long serving U.S. Senator who always won elections in the state by landslide margins—the party would decide that these voters didn’t matter and shunned them from outreach almost entirely. The end result is exactly what you would expect, with each election cycle only making the party more and more irrelevant as moderates flocked over to the Democrats. This brings us to 2024, where Democrats now have control over the Governorship, Attorney General’s office, Secretary of State’s office, and both of the U.S. Senate seats³. In addition, all signs point to the Arizona Republicans facing yet another shellacking statewide this year, with their numbers in the U.S. Senate race being utterly pitiful and their state legislative chances looking worse by the day. Thanks almost entirely to their insanity and strategical incompetence, the Arizona Republicans are on track to hand the Democrats a legislative trifecta for the first time since 1966, a remarkable fall from grace that is almost unrivaled anywhere else in the country.

Clearly, this puts Kamala Harris in a theoretically strong position to take Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. When your party is on track to win the U.S. Senate seat AND both legislative chambers, you are in a strong starting place. Beyond just that, though, Harris also benefits from many of the same factors that boosted her numbers in Nevada, from its highly diverse population, an abortion rights referendum on the ballot, and strong results in the 2022 midterms. All of these will boost her chances substantially, especially since Harris will also be able to benefit from continued swings in favor of Democrats with educated suburbanites, something that proved to be critical for Biden’s victory in 2020.

That being said, when looking at the data we have gotten thus far, the reality on the ground is less pretty than the theoretical one. While Harris has made up a ton of ground compared to where Biden was, she still finds herself behind Trump in most polling averages by around half a point. While this result is certainly one that is primed for Harris to make up some more ground, it’s still not the most ideal situation to deal with, especially since other efforts by Arizona Republicans are going down in flames. If Trump chooses to make larger money and time investments here, it could potentially prove decisive, especially if Harris chooses to take her efforts elsewhere.

However, given that the Harris campaign is flooded with cash and the Trump campaign has been spending most of its time in Pennsylvania, I don’t envision this happening. While some decent polling by Trump leaves me more bearish for Harris than I otherwise would be, factoring in everything else still gives the Vice President the slightest advantage in the Grand Canyon State.

Arizona Rating: Tilt Democratic

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.

Ever since the Trump era started, the Keystone State has been the undisputedly most important swing state in the entire country, and for very good reason. Being worth 19 electoral votes, virtually all indications point to it being the tipping point state for the 2024 election. It was the state that pushed Trump over the top in 2016, Biden over the top in 2020, and in all likelihood, will push whoever the winner is in 2024 over the top too. As a result, both Harris and Trump have spent most of their money and time here, and every last second they spend in the state will be vital. So, how is it going so far for them?

As of now, most signs are pointing in favor of Harris being the one to take the commonwealth. Just like in Michigan, the Dobbs ruling ended up playing very badly for the Republican Party in 2022, with them losing the Governorship by a landslide, the U.S. Senate seat by 5 points, and even control over the State House that was not assumed to be competitive. Shifts in the suburbs towards Democrats have kept them in a strong spot in the face of rural decline, with it ultimately being vital in Biden’s 2020 victory. With minority turnout projected to be on the rise, Harris will benefit from thousands of new voters, particularly from the deeply Democratic Philadelphia area. The concurrent U.S. Senate election is unlikely to be competitive, with the Democratic incumbent up over his Republican challenger by a large margin. For more reasons than one, Harris comes out of Pennsylvania in a strong spot, and in the process, comes out as the favorite in the presidential election too.

With that being said, what works out in Trump’s favor? The answer here is simple: Money. Unlike other states where he has been significantly outspent by the wealthy Harris campaign, the Trump team has a massive war chest for Pennsylvania on par with or even exceeding Harris'. This makes it distinct from almost every other state on this list, which has seen the Trump campaign retreat large amounts of financial ground in favor of a hyperfocused strategy on flipping Pennsylvania back to their side. Whether it will work is still yet to be seen, but it does make it more likely that the state will remain an ultra-competitive horserace for the next two months. For what it’s worth though, Trump’s focus on the state has certainly shown up in polling averages, with most of them showing Harris only up on Trump by less than a point. While low-quality right-wing pollsters have certainly done a number on many of these averages, the ones who don’t include them still aren’t much more decisive for Harris, giving Trump a lane for victory here wider than in the other northern battleground states.

Barring any seismic event between now and November, Pennsylvania will almost certainly come down to the wire once again. Both candidates possess valuable arguments in favor of winning the state, and I do not doubt that the polls will remain neck and neck for weeks to come. But if forced to choose a side here, I would tilt the scale towards Harris, because you’d rather have four big points in your favor than one.

Pennsylvania Rating: Tilt Democratic

Georgia

Heading down south, we once again have a crucial swing state that is near the top of the radar for both the Harris and the Trump campaign. Out of all the states on this list, this was one of the hardest for me to judge for a wide variety of reasons, but I think we still have somewhat of an idea of who’s favored here.

In comparison to Pennsylvania—which has been consistently close since the start of the 21st century—this distinction as a purple state is relatively new for voters from the Peach State. Throughout the 2000s and the former half of the 2010s, Georgia was a solidly Republican state, consistently voting solidly to the right of the country in every single election year. While Democrats had previously been able to contend in the state thanks to strong holdover support from rural whites, this advantage would eventually disappear as the Republicans played up their cultural conservatism to them. This change, combined with strong support from educated suburbanites in the Atlanta metro, gave Republicans the status of the dominant party in Georgia. Heading into 2016, their future looked very bright, especially since the fastest-growing parts of the state were those aforementioned Republican suburbs.

However, contrary to what many had anticipated, 2016 would end up not being a continuation of this Republican trend. While Donald Trump would still win the state by a 5-point margin, his numbers were nearly 3 points worse than what Mitt Romney had put up in 2012, making Georgia one of the few states in the country where Democrats improved from 2012. While Trump would make sizable gains in virtually every single rural county, his numbers would collapse in the suburbs, with three major suburban counties flipping blue outright. For the first time in decades, Republican strength among their core base of suburbanites looked to be in jeopardy, and in retrospect, it ended up being the beginning of the end of Georgia’s ruby-red status. While this was difficult to see initially, the 2020 election would make this abundantly clear. Not only did Biden become the first presidential Democrat to win Georgia since 1992, but Georgia Democrats would also flip both of the U.S. Senate seats in just one night, giving them control of the chamber in the process. After this, there was no denying it: Georgia is a swing state now, and both parties are going to need to do what they can to win it. Of course, that begs the obvious question: Who will win it?

Well, much like Nevada, it’s important to remember just how much this race has evolved in the last year. Back when Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, Trump’s chances in the Peach State looked very solid. Thanks to Biden’s lackluster numbers with minority communities, Trump had consistently held a comfortable lead, with Biden failing to lead a single poll after May 17th, 2023. While it wasn’t nearly as striking as his numbers in Nevada and North Carolina, Trump was still well on track to flip Georgia back to the GOP, thus limiting Biden’s hopes of victory considerably.

However, much like in Nevada, Harris’ entry into the race has completely changed the ballgame. While most polling averages still show Trump leading by just under a point, this still represents a massive improvement for the Democrats that put them within striking distance of victory. As of now, most signs have been fairly good for the Harris campaign, thanks in large part to increased enthusiasm among core Democratic constituencies and successfully holding onto gains with wealthy suburbanites concerned over Dobbs and anti-democratic rhetoric. Those two factors have been massive boons for the Democrats, and it leads me to give Harris a very slight advantage in Georgia. The Trump campaign certainly has plenty going for it, especially if he manages to keep even a small percentage of the minority support he gained when he was running against Biden. But while they may currently have the lead, I don’t think it holds up in the face of momentum.

Georgia Rating: Tilt Democratic

North Carolina

If there’s one thing almost everyone in the election analysis community can agree on, it’s that North Carolina is the master of getting Democratic hopes up every single time.

Starting off the century as one of many Republican strongholds in the South, the Tarheel State would end up shifting massively to the left in 2008, with Barack Obama becoming the first presidential Democrat to carry the state since 1976. While his margin of victory was extremely narrow, this would be enough to begin North Carolina’s transition into a perpetual battleground, but unfortunately for Democrats, it still wouldn’t be especially friendly to them. Simply put, the Democrats were not able to recreate the 2008 magic, coming up painfully short in all of the last three presidential elections. It didn’t matter how much money they spent or how high their turnout numbers were, it was never good enough to make a difference. Heading in 2024, all signs pointed to this disappointing streak continuing, especially as Donald Trump kept putting up commanding leads in almost every single poll. With Biden’s campaign seemingly collapsing, it looked like North Carolina’s purple-state status was coming to a close.

However, much like with Nevada and Georgia, Harris’ entry gave a shot of life for Democrats. Once on track to being a potential blowout, polling has shown North Carolina being a dead heat, with various different polling averages unable to agree on which candidate is in the lead. For all intents and purposes, North Carolina is currently a tied race, making it one of the hardest states to rank. On the one hand, the Republican’s past strength in the state gives Trump a decent model from which to work from, including two instances where he won the state twice. On the other hand, higher minority turnout and a cash advantage give Harris a strong shot at the state as well, especially since Democrats still have plenty of statewide victories to work from too. For the longest time, I had a difficult time thinking of a winner here.

However, if I had to pick a favorite, I’d go with Harris for one reason: Mark Robinson. The current Republican nominee for Governor, Robinson has developed a name for himself as one of the most visibly insane, far-right extremists running for office right now. Thanks to his crazy positions and personal shortcomings, his campaign has become nothing less than a total trainwreck, resulting in his Democratic opponent's polling margins being consistently above double digits. While the existence of reverse coattails is difficult to prove, the fact that many Democrats statewide are already tying other Republicans to Robinson suggests that there is a lot for them to gain by doing this. Ticket splitters still exist, and it’s not impossible to envision Trump carrying the state even if Robinson goes down by a large margin. But in this current era of political polarization, the loss of any statewide Republican by a margin that large is a good sign for every other Democrat, including Kamala Harris.

North Carolina Rating: Tilt Democratic

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

Now, we arrive at the part of this article that is far less friendly to Democrats. To get started on this journey, let’s go to another 2nd congressional district, this time in the Pine Tree State. Much like the section on Nebraska’s 2nd, this one will be pretty short because its story is also pretty easy to explain.

Based out of rural, northern Maine, the 2nd district has served as a symbol of Democratic slippage among rural and secular whites. While the district voted for Obama by an 8-point margin in 2012, Trump carried it by nearly 11 points in 2016, a rightward shift larger than even some of the biggest ones seen in the Midwest. After this result, it would have been easy to write off the seat, but future results would be somewhat murkier than expected. In 2018, Democrat Jared Golden got himself elected as the district’s U.S. Congressman, a very impressive feat when considering he was up against an incumbent. In 2020, while Trump would once again carry the district, his margin of victory would decrease to 7.4%, a larger shift to the left than the rest of the country. Finally, despite being heavily targeted by the House GOP, Golden would win re-election to a third term, defeating his opponent by a very solid 6-point margin.

Of course, Golden’s results don’t mean that the district is trending leftward. He’s a unique political talent who has consistently managed to break free from his party every election cycle, so his victory in 2024 is no guarantee that anyone else will carry the seat. But it does give Democrats a model for victory in the seat, and given how pro-choice the area is, it would be impossible for me to write it off entirely.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Rating: Likely Republican

Ohio

If you were getting into electoral politics before the Trump era, you could always be almost certain of one thing: as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. From 1964 to 2016, the industrial Rust Belt Buckeye State seemingly always had its finger on the pulse of the nation down perfectly, voting for the winner in every single election from that period, even often getting close to the margin. When Democratic president Lyndon Johnson won a massive landslide in 1964, Ohio voted him in by a landslide margin too. When the country was splitting down the middle like in 1968, 1976, and 2004, Ohio was there to vote for the winner every time, all by less than 3 points. When Ronald Reagan ushered in a conservative revolution, Ohio was happily drinking the cherry Kool-Aid. When Bill Clinton and Barack Obama each brought Democrats newfound life, Ohio switched over to blue raspberry. For decades, Ohio was unmatched in its consistency as a swing state, and it made analysts place a massive chunk of their coverage into it.

However, things began to change rapidly in the latter half of the 2010s, when Ohio suddenly voted for Trump by an 8-point margin despite barely winning nationwide in 2016. Compared to 2012—when Ohio voted for Obama by just 1 point less than he won nationwide—Ohio had voted for Trump by over 10 points more than the nation did, making it one of the largest trends rightward in the country. This was largely thanks to Trump’s massive gains with rural whites and blue-collar workers, the latter of which had been the core of every Democratic victory in the state for almost a century. While in other states these losses would be somewhat or even fully offset by Democratic gains in suburban and urban areas, these places and trends weren’t sizable enough in Ohio, putting the state’s future as a purple state in serious doubt.

Fast forwarding to 2024, and not much has changed in this regard. Absent Sherrod Brown’s successful re-election in 2018, no Democrat has managed to win statewide since Trump’s win in 2016. Despite 2018 being a massive blue wave, the Democrats failed to flip a single statewide office into their hands. In 2020, despite losing by a wider margin nationwide, Trump would once again carry the state by an 8-point margin, making the state 12 points more Republican than the nation. In 2022, Republicans would win every statewide office in the state once again, further cementing the state’s new Republican bent. With Trump as popular as ever with rural, blue-collar, and white working-class voters, we should theoretically anticipate this trend to continue, making a strong argument for a “Safe Republican” rating.

However, I disagree with such a rating for three reasons. Firstly, while the state has certainly stayed solidly in the Republican column, it hasn’t moved much since the 2016 election either. Trump’s margin in the state was identical in both 2016 and 2020, and polling indicates that his margin will likely remain around 8 points in 2024. This suggests that Democratic strength and positive trends in urban and suburban areas, while minimal, have done a decent job of stopping further bleeding, making it highly unlikely that their status in the state gets any worse. Secondly, this presidential race also coincides with the U.S. Senate race, which has incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown running for re-election. Despite being a high-priority target for the Senate GOP, they have failed thus far to break through, with Brown up on average in polling by around 4 points. If this lead holds, it would suggest that the Democratic brand itself is not toxic enough to cost them, which keeps Ohio in some degree of contention, if only narrowly. Finally, while Democrats have mostly failed to break through statewide since the 2016 election, they have had more significant success on the referendum front, with both abortion rights and marijuana legalization passing by 13 points each in 2023. Since every Republican in the country is stuck with the anchor that is the backlash from the Dobbs decision—including Trump himself—this creates a small opening for a shock in Ohio, even if minuscule.

For those reasons, I don’t think I can write off the state entirely. It’s certainly a large reach, and you should still expect Trump to carry the state on election night. But there are simply too many variables in favor of Democrats to say the situation is entirely hopeless for them.

Ohio Rating: Likely Republican

Iowa

I’m going to be honest: When I was initially writing this piece, I wasn’t even planning to write about Iowa at all, and if you have been paying close attention to electoral politics since 2016, I’m sure you know why. While its reputation as a blue-leaning swing state was mostly solid throughout the 1990s and 2000s, the 2010s would completely shatter it overnight. In 2016, despite Obama carrying the state by a 5-point margin just four years prior, Donald Trump would win the state in a near-landslide of 9 points.

Not only was this the largest swing toward Republicans in the entire Midwest, but the second largest in the entire country. No other midwestern state—not even Ohio or Michigan—could come even close to this, and it’s something that Iowa Democrats have never been able to recover from. While they would have some decent results in 2018 and 2020, they would hit their nadir in 2022, losing all but one statewide office and all of their U.S. House seats for the first time since 1994. Heading into 2024, all signs pointed to this continuing, and when the gold standard Selzer poll showed Trump up over Biden by 18 points, I wrote the state off entirely with little doubt in my mind.

So, that begs the question: Why the hell am I talking about it now? Even when factoring in Kamala’s gains nationwide compared to Biden, why would it ever be enough to make Iowa even remotely competitive?

The answer to this question is simple: Selzer came back with another poll that now only shows Trump over Harris by just 4 points, a stunning shift of 14 points leftward compared to their last poll. Obviously, there are important caveats to point out here, most notably that Selzer’s polls are known for their high volatility, and that their gold standard reputation mostly comes from their final poll. But if the state was truly off the map, Trump would be leading by far more than 4 points, and the fact that he isn’t is a sign that there is still something there for Democrats.

You shouldn’t expect Kamala Harris to carry Iowa. It’s extremely white and rural, and Iowa Democrats haven’t shown much hope of victory since 2016. It’s far more likely that Trump wins the state by double digits than anything else. But if things get really, really bad for Trump, Democrats could probably eke out one last victory, if only barely.

And, for what it’s worth, Democrats do have a model for a statewide victory!

Iowa Rating: Likely Republican

Texas

Here’s a fun fact: Did you know that if blue Texas were to ever become a reality on the presidential level, Republicans could win every single major swing state except Nevada and STILL lose the election? More so than any other state in the country, Texas has the unique ability to—if it wants to—completely kill off Republican chances for a generation. As the state has gotten closer in recent years, it’s a prospect that has been impossible for Democrats to pass up, making it a prime target for investment in this election.

However, this fact is also well known to the Republicans, who have also spent a considerable amount of time and money making sure a blue Texas never comes. Thus far, their efforts have been successful: they still hold every single statewide office, they successfully gerrymandered the State House and Senate to their benefit, and polling ahead of the 2024 election indicates a Trump lead of around 5 points. Despite seeing large slippage in urban and suburban communities, Texas Republicans have managed to make the rural parts of the state more red than ever, even breaking through the historically Democratic Rio Grande Valley in South Texas. Exurban parts of Texas are also growing rapidly, most of which is being populated by conservative transplants from California and other blue states. While neither of these factors has prevented their margins from slipping significantly compared to the 2000s, it has allowed them to keep a solid, if not massive lead in the state. Heading into November, Trump is the clear favorite in the Lone Star State.

So, why am I not rating the state as “Safe Republican”? My answer to this question is simple: trends. While Texas has mostly stayed put in the Republican camp since the start of the 21st century, almost every election has seen the state drift further to the left, sometimes even by substantial margins. It started in 2016 when Hillary Clinton performed 6.8 points better in the state than Barack Obama did in 2012, continued in 2018 when Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of unseating the incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, and nearly became purple in 2020 when Biden came within 5.6 points of winning the state. Most of this shift is thanks to rapid and dramatic shifts towards Democrats in populated Texas metros, almost all of which are rapidly growing. Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Fort Worth, and many more have all shown Democrats making massive strides among the populous, and it has allowed them to take Texas into the national conversation, even if their chance of actually flipping the state is still low. While 2024 is likely too soon to expect this to flip the state to Harris, it does give Texas an interesting future in the national spotlight. Trump should win the state, but I’d advise paying close attention to the margin.

Texas Rating: Likely Republican

Florida

If there is any state in the country that has disappointed Democrats more than North Carolina throughout the 21st century, it is undoubtedly the Sunshine State of Florida.

Starting the century as the state that helped give George W. Bush the presidency via dubious rules, Florida has been extremely consistent at destroying the hopes and dreams of Democrats all across the country. While it hasn’t been immune to voting for Democrats every now and then, the state’s general trend is to reject Democrats at all costs, often by cartoonishly negligible margins. In 2016, despite Hillary Clinton’s massive gains with Hispanic voters, Florida would vote for Trump by 1.2 points. In 2018—despite a massive blue wave sweeping the rest of the country—Florida voted out its Democratic U.S. Senator and elected Ron DeSantis to the Governorship. In 2020, the state voted for Trump by a 3.4-point margin, making it one of just six states to vote more Republican in 2020 than in 2016. Finally, the state would make its full transition into a Republican stronghold in 2022, with Republicans winning every statewide office by at least 16 points, shutting Democrats out of a single statewide office for the first time since Reconstruction. After 2022, the state wasn’t even giving the appearance of competitiveness anymore. It looked well and truly over now, and for the first time in decades, Florida is no longer in the conversation as an all-defining swing state.

But should it be?

It’s difficult to say. On the one hand, Florida should not be covered as a state that is coming down to the wire as it has been for the entire 21st century. In this era of political polarization, Republicans winning Florida by 20 points is not a one-off. It’s a sign of greater problems, and further analysis into said problems makes them obvious for Democrats. While the sizable Hispanic population once gave Democrats hope of an opportunity, these communities have been swinging to the right by wide margins, crippling Democratic support in Miami-Dade County, the biggest county in the state. Its most loyal voters are slowly moving away and dying off, replaced with deeply conservative transplants from blue states. Despite being the most pro-choice state in the South, the Dobbs decision has made little impact in stopping the bleeding for Democrats. For those decisions and many more, it shouldn’t be a surprise when Trump wins the state.

However, it’s not necessarily impossible for Democrats. Unlikely for sure, but it’s not completely out of the question. After all, it only voted for Trump by 3.4 points last time, DeSantis’ approval rating in Florida has begun to slip, the Republican U.S. Senator up for re-election in Florida is deeply unpopular, there are marijuana legalization and abortion referendums on the ballot, and polling averages have indicated a Trump lead of around 5 points. A sizable margin, for sure, but not an impossible hill to climb either. If things end up going extremely poorly for Trump in the next few weeks, Florida could present itself as a sleeper flip for Democrats.

Since such a situation is unlikely to occur, however, I’d caution Democrats from developing any more unfounded optimism. It’s okay to forget about Florida.

Florida Rating: Likely Republican

Alaska

In the spirit of an election full of twists and turns, I think it’s appropriate to cap off this article with the Last Frontier of Alaska, the biggest potential surprise out of all the states listed here.

Ever since it became a state back in 1959, Alaska has been home to some of the most bizarre and politically idiosyncratic elections in the entire country. While it hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, the margin that Republicans have carried in the state isn’t particularly consistent, nor has it translated much to down-ballot success. While Republicans have usually won the state by wide margins on the presidential level, Alaska is often the best state in the country for third-party challengers, both left-wing and right-wing. On the state level, Alaska has had a tendency to buck national trends, from electing Mark Begich to the U.S. Senate in 2008, Bill Walker for Governor in 2014, to Mary Peltola’s back-to-back victories for the U.S. House seat in 2022. In this era of political polarization, Alaska has stood out as one of the last places where ticket-splitting remains alive and well, making it very unique in a ranking such as this one.

So what does this have to do with the presidential level? Well, for what it’s worth, you probably shouldn’t expect too much. Alaska, while certainly an interesting wildcard, is still a Republican-leaning state that voted for Trump by 10 points in 2020. While the state is pro-choice, it is also extremely pro-gun, making Kamala Harris—who has openly supported a ban on assault weapons—a tough sell for many. While it has urban and suburban areas that have trended leftward, it also has a lot of rural areas that swung rightward in 2020. While its natural beauty makes it a hub for environmentalists primed to support Harris, its abundance of oil also makes it a hub for refinery workers who are primed to support Trump. While you shouldn’t expect the state to swing rightward, you probably shouldn’t expect it to vote Democratic either.

Probably.

While the state should be voting Republican this fall, I would be lying if I said that there wasn’t a case to be made for Democrats. While Alaska’s rural areas are plentiful and sizable, it’s worth remembering that some of these places are also populated by Indigenous communities, who have been solidly in the Democratic camp for decades now. While most of these places swung to the right in 2020, Harris’ stronger appeal with minority voters when compared to Biden could provide her a nice chunk of votes that would have otherwise been lost. Additionally, the fastest-growing parts of the state—particularly Anchorage—have been zooming leftward at a breakneck pace, and with Harris on track to keep Biden’s gains with suburban and urban voters, this trend should continue in 2024. Finally, while Alaska hasn’t been home to much polling, a recent survey conducted by Alaska Survey Research—the firm that predicted Peltola’s victory perfectly back in 2022—shows Trump only leading in the state by 5 points, 47% to 42%. While this margin indicates that Trump should be winning the state again, it is a notable decrease from his 10-point victory in 2020, and since the Harris campaign is flushed with cash, they have every reason to invest some money into the state. For the first time in decades, Alaska is in the conversation for competitive presidential politics, if only barely. While you should anticipate a Trump victory in the Last Frontier, you also shouldn’t count it out.

Alaska Rating: Likely Republican

Conclusion

In this current era of partisan polarization and division, it can often seem like it’s impossible to find much of anything that unites the American people. However, throughout the first half of this election season, there was always one very clear consensus that broke through party lines: No one wanted a Trump vs. Biden rematch, and it’s not difficult to see why. Both candidates were extremely old, deeply unpopular, and were both associated with separate periods of malaise. Almost no one was excited about the prospect of the race, and the image of the American government as a retirement home was stronger than ever. For a while, the only thing that mattered was who was perceived as more capable of doing the job, and in the aftermath of the June debate, it looked like Trump was going to walk away with that advantage with ease. Had Biden chosen to stay in the race, the Democrats would likely have walked themselves off a cliff, giving Trump and the GOP a clear mandate that they could previously only dream of.

However, Democrats would finally answer the call on July 21st, and as we have established throughout the article, it has been an extraordinary success for them. Once seen as being out of touch and wrong for the time, the Democratic ticket of Harris/Walz has taken the mantle of change, enthusiasm, youth, and seriousness. With no Biden to distract voters with, Trump’s advantage of perceived competence is completely gone. Nowhere was this more evident during the debate, where millions of Americans got a showcase of who Trump really was: an old, out-of-touch lunatic spouting off insane conspiracy theories about immigrants eating dogs. Any charisma and energy from 2016 is gone, his age has clearly caught up to him. While he could look like the safe pick against a president who looked too old to serve, now he looks like an unhinged madman who can never be trusted with power. For voters looking for an escape from the unpopular Biden and Trump presidencies, Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear favorite, and as a result, she is the favorite to win the presidency.

Ultimately, that was always going to define the direction of this election: Who will save us from another Trump vs. Biden race? Because Democrats decided to take up that responsibility, they are the favorites to win. It’s not much more complicated than that.

1. In 2016, the level of education someone had was not weighed as an important factor in who people voted for. This was a major mistake, as 2016 would be the beginning of a new era of education polarization. After 2016, if you had more education, the more likely you were to support Democrats, and vice versa. This has since been corrected and accounted for.

2. In 2020, many polls were conducted by phone. While this was and remains a perfectly fine way to go about getting results, it didn’t work well with the COVID-19 pandemic for one important reason: Republicans weren’t answering the phone. Since Democrats were more likely than Republicans to follow stay-at-home orders, they were also more likely to be able to answer phones, and in the process, skew the results massively in favor of Democrats. This was a one-time issue, and there is no reason to expect that it should affect polling in 2024.

3. Kyrsten Sinema is technically an independent, but she caucuses with the Democrats. In addition, it’s extremely likely that Ruben Gallego will win the U.S. Senate race this fall.