The Success of Minnesota's Uncommitted Campaign and What It Means
What does the strong result of this protest campaign mean for November?
Ok, I’ll be honest, I didn’t see this one coming.
Going into Super Tuesday, I had expected the uncommitted vote in Minnesota to be larger than most states. Not only is the DFL base considerably more progressive and engaged than most other state Democratic parties, not only would a bunch of Biden voters be crossing over to vote for Nikki Haley thanks to the open primary system, but Minnesota is also home to around 64k Somali Americans, the highest percentage of any state in the country. When putting it all together, there were many reasons to be bullish on the Uncommitted campaign’s strength.
But I would also be lying if I said this result didn’t surprise me. Not only was Minnesota the strongest Uncommitted showing of any state on Super Tuesday, but it also blew past Michigan’s 13.2%, scoring around 19% of the vote when all is said and done. Combining that with Dean Phillips’ 7.8%, it left President Biden barely scoring above 70% of the vote, his worst showing in a primary where he was on the ballot.
Granted, I could add some caveats to this performance, such as the low turnout or the fact that a bunch of Democrats crossed over to vote for Nikki Haley out of spite for Donald Trump. But even when considering all of that, it’s still impossible to ignore that as many as 45k people were so disillusioned with their own party’s president that they got out of bed, went to the polls, and voted out of a singular desire to express that anger. This is even notable when you consider that, compared to the campaign in Michigan, this one received far less media attention and had far less money to work with. Had there been more attention on this movement before Super Tuesday, it would have done even better.
Make no mistake, this is a big deal. That kind of energy doesn’t come out of nowhere, and it’s also not something you can ignore. If I were the Biden campaign right now, I’d be figuring out how to address this problem immediately.
In this short article, I want to go over what this result means, as well as how this problem, while sizable, can also be easily solved. In making this, I want to acknowledge both the work that the uncommitted campaign put into this race, as well as how the Biden campaign can navigate this issue heading into November.
Understanding Uncommitted Voters
First, I think it’s important to address a narrative that has become popularized by some liberals in light of both this result in Minnesota and the results in Michigan a few weeks ago. In an attempt to dismiss the strong showing uncommitted had in both cases, some have argued that it is not worth it to try to get their votes back because they are simply unwinnable. After all, if they are voting against Biden and pledging to use their leverage in the presence of an inevitable Trump nomination, what makes us think that they will come back in November? Besides, some people have already pledged that they won’t vote for him anyway, so why bother spending that energy trying to win back their votes? Isn’t it better to bite the bullet and move on?
While I won’t deny that some people voted uncommitted and probably won’t vote for Biden no matter what he does, I also think painting broad brushes like this is deeply dishonest and counterproductive.
When looking at where the uncommitted vote was strongest, it’s clear that its strongest spots in the state were predominantly in the Twin Cities metro, particularly in majority Somali neighborhoods that have been voting for the DFL for generations. Voters here are loyal Democrats, and I highly doubt that any of them are even remotely close to pulling the lever for Trump, especially since they already voted against him overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. But they are also deeply disgusted with Biden’s policies regarding Israel-Palestine, so much so that they were willing to go to the polls and vote against him in a primary where he was always guaranteed victory.
Additionally, this argument by some liberals for dismissing uncommitted voters is also dangerous from an electoral standpoint. Granted, Minnesota has a Democratic firewall higher than most other swing states, so the possibility that Minnesota itself flips red because of left-wing apathy is very low. However, that firewall also simply doesn’t exist at the same level in other swing states. Sure, Biden could probably take a beating in a state he won by 7% in 2020. But what about Wisconsin, a state he only carried by 0.6%? What about Michigan, which he only carried by 2.8%? What about Pennsylvania, the state that narrowly pushed him over 270 electoral votes in 2020? All of these states are also northern swing states, but unlike Minnesota, they simply don’t have the same level of pre-established Democratic support to save them if turnout goes south. Biden is going to need every vote he can get in these states, and if he is bleeding as much as 20% of support from his own party’s primary, that doesn’t spell much optimism for November.
Simply put, the people who voted uncommitted are sending a clear message to Biden: Change the course, or we stay home. Dismissing that as selfish or helping Trump accomplishes nothing but driving them further away and making the problem worse in the long run.
So, how does Biden turn it around?
What Biden Needs To Do
Here’s where things get a bit more optimistic for the Biden team. As we have established thus far, most people who voted uncommitted are ones who are disappointed with Biden’s policy regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza and are sending a clear message that their vote is important and cannot be ignored. Electorally, while this doesn’t necessarily apply to Minnesota itself, the strong showing it gave in Minnesota is a warning sign for the Biden campaign, as if such results are replicated in other swing states, it could very well be game over. To avoid that, Biden must win back the trust of these voters.
Fortunately, this is a pretty easy issue to solve. Over the last few months, we have seen support for Israel slowly decline further and further as the lunacy of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is put on full display. Additionally, support for a ceasefire is at an all-time high, a remarkable shift away from Israel compared to where its support began back in October. This notable shift is affecting Democratic lawmakers in Washington too, with even some mainstream Democrats going public about the need for change in how we approach this war.
While Biden has reportedly expressed sympathy with these points in private, he has virtually never been publicly vocal about any of it and has rarely made a point to criticize Israel or Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict in public. This has been a grave mistake, not only giving an image separate from the rest of the Democratic Party but the rest of the country too. He looks completely out of touch and unwilling to listen to critics, hence why he keeps losing thousands of people to the uncommitted movement. If he wants to earn their trust back, he needs to make a strong, public case. He needs to condition aid, similar to how George H.W. Bush did in 1991. He needs to call for an immediate ceasefire and voice his concerns about what Israel is doing in the Gaza Strip. This may not win back every voter lost in the last few months, but if the goal is to defeat Trump, the first voters to win back are ones that we’re already going to vote for you before all of this happened.
Will the Biden campaign do this? It’s difficult to say. While their current comments about this issue haven’t been satisfactory, it is also a few months out, and there have been notable Biden allies sounding the alarm on this issue, most notably today from Governor Tim Walz. In his CNN interview, while he mentions that he believes most will come home to Biden in November, he also argues that the Biden administration can and should do more and that the uncommitted result cannot be ignored. This sentiment was also shared by Ilhan Omar, who argues that this was a call for the president to take clear, decisive action.
For the sake of the future of our democracy, I hope Biden chooses to listen to Tim Walz and Ilhan Omar.