Does Tom Emmer Have a Chance?
Analyzing the Speakership Bid of one of Minnesota's Most Generic Politicians
UPDATE: No. I am saddened to announce the death of Tom Emmer’s speakership bid. Well, not really, but wow. While I expected this bid to fail, I never anticipated it lasting just FOUR HOURS! At the very least, I expected him to try at least a little bit, if for no other reason than he would look incredibly weak if he didn’t. But alas, despite the wishes of the Dean Phillips empire, Tom Emmer will not try to seek out a coalition or get Republican support. Honestly, if this was what the resistance looked like to him, I’m baffled he even tried to win.
I’m going to keep this article up for transparency’s sake, and because the final X factor could still play in if moderate Republicans start approaching Democrats after this. But speculation over an Emmer speakership is now void. Emmermentum is dead, I’m sorry to say.
My Analysis Prior to Emmer Dropping Out
Currently, the United States House of Representatives is stuck in political limbo. After Democrats and a small group of Republicans ousted incumbent Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy amid fights over keeping the government open, the party has completely failed to find a leader to replace him. First, they went with Steve Scalise, the second in line to McCarthy, and the one thought to be able to bring the MAGA wing and moderate wing together. But that effort went down in a whimper after it became clear that despite being very right-wing himself, Scalise would not be able to win their support. After that debacle, the caucus briefly succumbed to the MAGA crowd, nominating Jim Jordan to be their nominee. This time, they would go to the floor for a vote, which saw Jordan and the Republicans embarrass themselves three times, losing support from his own caucus each time in the process. After the third vote, Jordan was ousted, leading Republicans to search in vain for a new leader. But after all of this, who would seriously want to do this?
Well, it appears we have our answer, and it happens to be one of my fellow Minnesotans! Here we have Tom Emmer, the congressman representing Minnesota’s 6th congressional, which mostly consists of conservative Twin Cities exurbs and the St. Cloud area. First elected in 2014, he has been able to climb the ladder of Republican leadership, earning the role of head of the House Republican effort in 2020 and 2022, House Majority Whip under Kevin McCarthy, and as of right now, the current speakership nominee for the Republicans.
As of right now, it doesn’t look like he is in an especially good spot. Behind closed doors, he won about as many votes as both Scalise and Jordan. It also looks very likely that at least on the first vote, he will lose around 26 Republicans(!), most of whom are MAGA-aligned and plan to vote for Jim Jordan. On policy, he is woefully out of step with many of the party’s most passionate base, especially online. From supporting the Respect for Marriage Act, his strong support for the effort in Ukraine, or his vote to certify the 2020 election, he has not shown himself to be in step with the MAGA wing. He’s certainly still a partisan conservative, I don’t want any liberals who subscribe to my page to be fooled into thinking he’s some Arne Carlson-esque moderate. But he’s clearly much more on the establishment end of the spectrum than many in the caucus.
In theory, this should doom his bid. After all, Scalise was also establishment-aligned and was further to the right than Emmer, and he couldn’t bring the MAGA wing on board. While he’ll likely pick up some moderates who voted against Jordan, he would still have to win over the MAGA base of the conference in order to become Speaker. Because of this, the story is already written for many, going something like this: Emmer will go to the floor, lose around 25-30 Republicans, try to convince those behind closed doors to vote for him by offering concessions, fail to do so, and then go to the floor again and lose more votes, becoming an endless cycle until he drops out, forcing Republicans to go through the process of picking yet another leader. That’s just the nature of working with this current Republican caucus: They can’t agree on anything and don’t have a big interest in actually governing.
This story is the one I think is the most likely right now. Despite his many titles, there isn’t much in Emmer’s political career that indicates a whole lot of competence. His first big campaign to become Minnesota’s governor in 2010 should have been an easy fight. He had a red-wave environment on his side, the Republicans already held control of the Governor’s Mansion, he had an opponent who was previously regarded as one of the most incompetent U.S. Senators, and his party was on track to flip both the State House and State Senate. In theory, he should have been the one to lead Minnesota into a new era of conservative rule, becoming something akin to Scott Walker or Rick Synder in other neighboring Midwestern states. But despite those big advantages, Emmer would manage to blow it on election day, when he was defeated by a 0.4% margin, which helped Democrats flip the governorship from red to blue, being one of the few gains Democrats made anywhere in 2010. For his only show on the statewide level, it didn’t exactly paint much promise.
Four years later, he would make a return to politics, running for the 6th district after the retirement of incumbent congresswoman and utterly bizarre human being Michelle Bachmann. While he has been able to win in his seat consistently thanks to its strong Republican lean, none of his wins have been shockers. According to Split Ticket’s WAR model, which analyzes how well an incumbent would do compared to an average Democrat or Republican, Emmer has never been able to show off real political skill. In 2018, he did 2.7 points worse than an average Republican would have done. In 2020, he did 1.4 points better than average. Finally, in 2022, he did 0.4 points worse than average. In other words, no signs of strong political appeal. While his moderate image could paint the picture that he has some grip that other Republicans cannot tap into, his results just don’t show it. Sure, he may be better than Marjorie Taylor Greene or Lauren Boebert at appealing to voters, but that’s also not a difficult task to pull off. In the GOP, he’s a political moderate who looks like every other generic conservative Republican. That’s not a good position to be in.
Additionally, his role as head of the House Republican effort leaves a lot to be desired. While his 2020 showing was quite strong thanks to unanticipated Republican gains in the chamber, he hasn’t been close to recreating any kind of magic since then. Heading into 2022, most observers had concluded that the House was essentially gone for Democrats, meaning that no matter what happened, the House was practically a guaranteed flip. In retrospect, we know this wasn’t true. But for most of the cycle, Emmer and his Senate leadership colleague Rick Scott would take this perspective, putting very little effort into stopping Trump from nominating his hand-picked candidates. This resulted in a bunch of low-quality weirdos becoming the face of Republican efforts across several different swing districts. While the Republicans would ultimately still overcome this and flip the House in 2022, they did so by an extremely slim margin, coming far below their own expectations. And Tom Emmer was right in the center of it, receiving much of the blame for the party’s failure, and only barely managing to be elected as Majority Whip due to protest from the MAGA wing. While I can’t honestly say that Emmer is to blame for all of his party’s failings in 2022, he definitely sat on the sidelines and allowed them to eat each other alive. Not exactly a good sign for being a leader.
Finally, his role as Majority Whip has been mediocre at best. After barely managing to win the role in November of 2022, he had immediately been faced with a job he didn’t prepare for and didn’t assume he’d have to take: saving McCarthy’s speakership before it even began. While he was ultimately able to get McCarthy over the finish line in January, it happened after 15 rounds of voting and after McCarthy sold off a massive chunk of his power, something that would later come back to bite him. Throughout McCarthy’s tenure, Emmer has not demonstrated an ability to bring the party along. Whether it be on the 2023 debt ceiling bill, the recent fight over the yearly budget, or various other Republican efforts to work with the Biden administration, Emmer has failed massively to bring the caucus on board. All of these bills bleed Republican support upwards of nearly triple digits, forcing Democrats to serve the role of bailing out the country from falling off a fiscal cliff. All of this culminated in McCarthy’s ultimate removal, with Emmer once again failing to bring the caucus together to save the flailing Speaker. If he is supposed to be the guy to unite Republicans behind him, his whipping ability doesn’t show it at all.
All of those signs point to Emmer failing to become Speaker. If you ask me how I think his bid will go, I’m saying it’s likely to fail for the same reasons I gave above. This current caucus is just unworkable, unwilling to govern, and a product of decades of Republican messaging about government being the root of all evil. But that being said, there is still a question mark surrounding his bid that neither Scalise nor Jordan really had. While his speakership is on track to fail, this could serve as a shakeup to this ongoing game and end it once and for all.
This question mark is the Democrats.
Out of all of the candidates we have had for Speaker so far in October, Emmer is easily the most likely to be able to strike a deal with Democrats. While he is certainly very partisan, he also holds the distinction of sometimes taking moderate votes on various issues. This puts him apart from Scalise and Jordan, both of whom are almost entirely in lockstep with the Republican agenda. While it makes him look like a sellout RINO to many in the MAGA wing, it does have the potential to make him more approachable in the eyes of Democrats. In fact, Dean Phillips, a Minnesota DFL congressman representing the neighboring 3rd district, has already said that he would be willing to sit out of the speakership vote if Emmer committed to funding Ukraine and supporting the peaceful transition of power, both things Emmer is on the record as supporting.
Granted, this is just one person, and someone who isn’t exactly beloved by the party right now. But if it does represent a real feeling among some on the Democratic side, it gives Emmer a real opening to become Speaker off the backs of Democrats abstaining. While it’s probably more likely he’d go down in defeat than work with Democrats, it’s also true that the government is on track to shut down soon amid several different international crises. It’s a real possibility that desperation kicks in for Emmer and the Democrats, and by extension, form a deal to keep the government running. Do I think it will happen? No, Emmer would probably lose his seat if he did. But if things get really bad, it’s not impossible.
For this reason, I’m not ready to rule out an Emmer speakership just yet. It’s definitely unlikely, and if he resorts to doing the same partisan maneuvers that his three predecessors did (as I expect him to), he should just drop out now and not waste our time. But unlike his last three predecessors, he has an opportunity to pull off something truly interesting. If he plays his cards right amid this truly tumultuous time, we could end up with a Speaker Tom Emmer who is supplied off the back of establishment Republicans and various members of the Democratic caucus. It would be unprecedented, but in the face of unprecedented controversy both internationally and domestically, it may be the only choice left in the eyes of many in both parties.
Maybe, just maybe, Tom Emmer could be the true moderate unifier that no one asked for.
